Betting Markets Show Doubt Trump Will Oust Jerome Powell or Lisa Cook This Year

Polymarket Bets: Powell Likely Safe, Cook Faces Uncertain Legal Test Under Trump

Prediction markets show investors unconvinced that Donald Trump can force major changes at the Federal Reserve in 2025. Polymarket contracts assign just a 10% probability that Chair Jerome Powell will be removed before his term ends in May 2026, suggesting traders see his position as secure.

Governor Lisa Cook faces more immediate pressure. Trump has moved to dismiss her, alleging mortgage fraud, making her the first sitting Fed governor directly targeted for removal. Cook has rejected the accusations and refused to resign, noting that “for cause” dismissals apply only to misconduct during office. Traders price her odds of being ousted this year at 27%.

History shows presidents have long influenced the Fed, from Truman forcing out Thomas McCabe to Nixon’s pressure on Arthur Burns. A Cato study has argued independence is “more myth than reality.”

For markets, Powell’s dismissal would be disruptive but could also mean faster rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and potential support for bitcoin (BTC $109,769.34). Crypto advocates argue it would highlight bitcoin’s immunity to political capture.

So far, traders are unmoved. Bitcoin rose only 0.3% on the Cook news before slipping, down 2.6% on the day. The CoinDesk 20 index lost 5.3% to trade below 4,000 by mid-day in Hong Kong.