Asia Morning Briefing: Prediction Markets Failed to Anticipate Bitcoin’s Sharp Drop

Bitcoin’s Rapid Sentiment Shift Catches Traders Off Guard

Bitcoin’s drop into the low $90,000s has triggered one of the fastest market sentiment reversals of 2025. Prediction markets have swung sharply from upside scenarios to pricing in a deeper structural decline rather than a routine correction. Retail and institutional traders alike were caught off guard, with Polymarket odds now heavily favoring further downside after a multi-week selloff erased most of Bitcoin’s year-to-date gains.

QCP recently noted that even professional desks were unprepared for a weekly close below $100,000 or a breach of the 50-week moving average, describing the move as a cycle-level inflection that markets are still processing.

On-chain data from Glassnode points to stress in the market, with oversold momentum, rising realized losses, and moderating ETF outflows suggesting late-stage capitulation pressures in zones where previous bottoms have formed. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant cautions that a true floor has yet to emerge: realized losses remain low, and long-term holders are still selling into strength.

The result is a market caught between early signs of exhaustion and the lack of full capitulation, setting up a volatile stretch as traders weigh which signal will prevail.

Market Overview

Bitcoin (BTC): ~$92,500, down ~2% on the day, ~27% from last month’s high
Ether (ETH): Just above $3,000, down ~2% in 24 hours, ~15% weekly decline
Gold: ~$4,069/oz, down 0.3%, pressured by a stronger dollar and fading Fed rate cut expectations
Nikkei 225: Down 0.92% as Asia-Pacific markets followed Wall Street’s tech-led slide, with investors eyeing Nvidia earnings and Japan’s September jobs report

Other Crypto Headlines

DappRadar shuts down, citing a “financially unsustainable” market (CoinDesk)
Ethereum described by Vitalik Buterin as the “opposite of FTX” (Decrypt)
Hacker behind Barack Obama and Jeff Bezos Twitter breaches to repay over $5M in stolen Bitcoin (The Block)