Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Approaches Breakout as Leverage and Patience Align

Bitcoin Holds Firm Above $105K Amid Political Tensions and Growing Institutional Interest

As Asian markets open on Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) trades just above $105,500, retreating slightly from the $107,000 peak it hit during the U.S. session.

Despite unexpected geopolitical events—such as a U.S. strike on Iran that surprised many—Bitcoin remains resilient as a store of value. CoinDesk data shows BTC has maintained relative stability over the past month, gaining about 1%.

Unlike the rapid ascent past $100K in December 2024 that triggered substantial profit-taking, long-term holders now appear to be holding steady. Glassnode’s weekly report highlights this trend, noting a record 14.7 million BTC are held by long-term investors who show minimal inclination to sell near all-time highs.

The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) indicates most coin sales come from short-term traders rather than long-term holders cashing out.

Glassnode’s Liveliness metric continues to decline, showing older coins remain off the market.

Institutional demand is robust, with QCP Capital reporting $2.2 billion in net inflows to Bitcoin spot ETFs last week. Investors like Strategy and Metaplanet are actively accumulating.

This steady inflow is helping to strengthen Bitcoin’s market foundation, with realized capitalization reaching $955 billion, reflecting real capital investment beyond speculative activity.

However, risks remain. QCP notes an increase in leveraged long positions and positive funding rates in major perpetual futures, signaling heightened speculative bets.

Glassnode warns the market may need a strong price move to unlock additional selling pressure. The current stalemate between long-term holders and leveraged short-term traders may not last.

Following Senate approval of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” Bitcoin’s price action has remained range-bound, with long-term holders reluctant to sell and speculators building leveraged positions.

Analysts are watching closely for a trigger that could cause a decisive market movement.

Additional News:

Figma’s Bitcoin ETF Holdings: Figma disclosed a $70 million Bitcoin ETF investment in its IPO filings, with plans to expand BTC purchases using USDC reserves.
DDC Enterprise Capital Raise: Hong Kong’s DDC Enterprise raised $528 million to acquire 5,000 BTC over three years.
DeFi Development Corp. Convertible Notes: The Solana-focused firm plans a $100 million convertible note offering to bolster its SOL holdings.

Market Summary:

BTC: Bitcoin remains near $106K, with long-term holders showing little activity.
ETH: Ethereum saw heavy selling after failing to break $2,522, closing with a volatile 4.5% range.
Gold: Gold prices rose over 1% amid a weaker dollar and trade uncertainties, with spot at $3,357.85.
S&P 500: U.S. stocks closed mixed; the S&P 500 dropped 0.11% to 6,198.01 amid rotation out of tech stocks.