Asia Morning Briefing: After CZ’s Clemency, Sam Bankman-Fried’s Redemption Odds Climb

Asia Morning Briefing: SBF Pardon Odds Jump After CZ’s Record Is Cleared

The chances of Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon remain slim — but markets are showing renewed optimism after Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s criminal record was wiped clean.

Pardon Talk Reignites

Bettors on prediction platforms are recalibrating their expectations. On Polymarket, odds that the former FTX chief will be pardoned rose five percentage points to 12% following former President Donald Trump’s decision to pardon CZ on Thursday (U.S. time). Meanwhile, Kalshi traders pushed a similar contract up nine points to 16%.

The move reflects growing speculation that Bankman-Fried could seek the same clemency path. Earlier this year, he launched a media charm offensive, including an appearance on Tucker Carlson’s podcast, part of a broader effort to rehabilitate his image and align himself with conservative audiences.

The ex-FTX CEO has argued he was unfairly targeted for backing Republicans, while his parents have quietly courted Trump’s political allies in hopes of securing leniency for their son’s 25-year sentence.

Markets Caught Off Guard

Trump’s surprise decision to pardon CZ blindsided traders who had largely discounted the possibility. For most of the contract’s lifespan, SBF pardon odds hovered between 20% and 40%, reflecting skepticism that political mercy was in play.

Despite their reputation for accuracy, prediction markets occasionally misprice tail risks — and a sudden SBF pardon would be the kind of unexpected twist that even The Altruists, Netflix’s upcoming series on the FTX collapse, might have cut for being too improbable — until it isn’t.

Market Snapshot

Bitcoin (BTC): Gained 2.7% to about $110,700 on Thursday, recovering from midweek losses as investors positioned ahead of Friday’s U.S. inflation data.

Ether (ETH): Hovering near $3,850, with analysts pointing to a potential Wyckoff re-accumulation pattern. Rising institutional demand is fueling speculation of an $8,000–$10,000 target later this cycle.

Gold: Trading around $4,126, up nearly 50% year-to-date after setting a record above $4,000. Persistent geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and Fed policy uncertainty are supporting prices, though Morgan Stanley warns high levels could slow jewelry and reserve buying even as it raises its 2026 forecast to $4,400.

Nikkei 225: Climbed 0.78% on Friday, leading Asia-Pacific gains after the White House confirmed Trump–Xi talks are scheduled for next week.

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