Asia Market Outlook: Bitcoin, Altcoins Steady as Pivotal Week Looms With Fed Decision and Trump–Xi Talks

Traders are entering one of the year’s most pivotal weeks betting on a Trump–Xi breakthrough and a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve to keep the “Uptober” rally alive. Yet, concerns over rare-earth export restrictions and the U.S. government shutdown continue to cloud the outlook.

Bitcoin hovered near $114,000, while Ethereum traded around $4,120 early Tuesday in Hong Kong as markets braced for a critical confluence of U.S.–China diplomacy, Fed policy shifts, and a wave of Big Tech earnings.

Prediction platform Polymarket shows traders heavily favoring a deal, assigning a 92% probability that Washington and Beijing will finalize a tariff agreement by November 10. The optimism follows constructive weekend discussions in Malaysia and ahead of Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping at Thursday’s APEC summit in Seoul.

The prospect of a breakthrough has lifted sentiment across risk assets. Bitcoin briefly touched $116,200 on Sunday, while crypto-related and AI-linked equities such as Hut 8, CleanSpark, and IREN gained between 2–3%.

However, traders remain cautious about the broader geopolitical landscape. Another Polymarket market gives only a 36% chance that China will lift its rare-earth export ban by the end of 2025 — a sign that investors expect progress on trade but continued rivalry over strategic resources.

That divergence underscores the view that any progress from Thursday’s summit will be political rather than structural.

In its latest note, Singapore-based QCP Capital said the Trump–Xi meeting “could have more immediate impact on crypto’s direction than the Fed’s rate decision.” The firm noted growing chatter that the Fed may soon end its three-year quantitative tightening cycle, which could inject fresh liquidity into markets.

“Any sign of that happening sooner rather than later would re-anchor liquidity expectations,” QCP said.

Still, Bitcoin remains unchanged for October, threatening to end its seven-year ‘Uptober’ winning streak.

QCP added that the 26-day U.S. government shutdown is obscuring economic visibility for policymakers by delaying key data releases. Investors are also closely watching upcoming earnings from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Google for insights into consumer resilience.

In derivatives markets, BTC and ETH risk reversals have turned neutral after weeks of bearish hedging, suggesting traders see less downside pressure in the near term.

Yet, QCP warned that a sustained rally will likely require Bitcoin to reclaim $116,000 before month’s end. With geopolitics, central bank policy, and liquidity expectations colliding, crypto markets face a volatile week that could either extend or break the “Uptober” streak.

Market Snapshot

• BTC: Bitcoin briefly hit $116,200 before easing to $114,000, consolidating near recent highs as traders await the Trump–Xi summit and the Fed’s guidance.
• ETH: Ethereum held steady around $4,120, mirroring Bitcoin’s pattern as investors weigh macro catalysts and liquidity prospects.
• Gold: Gold rebounded to $4,021 per ounce after slipping below $4,000 on Monday, pressured by trade optimism and rising Treasury yields.
• Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.38%, and Topix declined 0.49%, as regional traders awaited Trump’s first meeting with Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

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