As Trade Tensions Between the U.S. and China Cool, Bitcoin’s Outperformance of Gold Might Accelerate, Charts Indicate

A shift in the global trade landscape is tilting the market’s balance away from safe havens like gold and toward risk assets—chief among them, bitcoin.

In the past two weeks, bitcoin (BTC) has jumped nearly 19%, reaching $104,000, while gold (XAU) has dropped more than 8% from its April 22 high of $3,500, now trading at $3,211. Behind this divergence lies a combination of geopolitical relief and powerful technical momentum favoring the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

One of the clearest signals of bitcoin’s strengthening position is the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which compares BTC’s price to that of gold per ounce. The ratio recently broke out of an inverse head-and-shoulders formation—a widely followed technical pattern that often precedes a shift from bearish to bullish trend.

Now sitting around 32.00, the ratio could rise to 35.00, based on standard chart projection methods. That kind of move would suggest continued BTC outperformance in the weeks ahead.

“Bitcoin has historically followed gold rallies with a lag,” one trader noted. “But now, it’s not just catching up—it’s pulling ahead as the macro backdrop improves.”

That macro shift became more pronounced on Monday, when the U.S. and China jointly announced a plan to cut tariffs, easing long-standing trade friction. China will slash tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10% for 90 days, while the U.S. will reduce its tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.

“This kind of policy pivot triggers a broader appetite for risk,” said Mena Theodorou, co-founder of Coinstash. “Equities and crypto alike are seeing inflows as confidence returns. Bitcoin, in particular, stands to benefit from this rotation away from defensive plays like gold.”

Adding to the upbeat sentiment is news that the U.S. has finalized separate trade agreements with the U.K., while diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine—set for Thursday—raise hopes for a ceasefire.

Taken together, the easing of trade and geopolitical tensions is reshaping investor behavior. And with bullish technical patterns aligning with a supportive macro narrative, bitcoin appears well-positioned to extend its gains over gold in the near term.