Analysts at Glassnode See Risk of Bitcoin Drop Toward $88,000

Bitcoin Risks Deeper Pullback as Glassnode Flags $113K Failure and Weakening Sentiment

The analytics firm Glassnode warns that Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim the $113,000 short-term holder cost basis could open the door to a sharper correction, as long-term holders continue to sell and market sentiment weakens.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $109,957 at press time, extending its recent decline. Despite periods of volatility, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has largely oscillated between $100,000 and $120,000 for most of 2025 — but that stability may now be at risk.

According to Glassnode’s latest weekly report, Bitcoin’s repeated failures to recover the $113,000 cost basis — the average entry price of short-term investors (those who bought within the last 155 days) — highlight fading bullish momentum. This level often acts as a dividing line between healthy uptrends and deeper retracements.

If the trend continues, Glassnode cautions that BTC could revisit $88,000, the next major support and the “realized price” for active investors. Historically, this metric has aligned with the lower bounds of corrective cycles, including during the April 2025 “tariff tantrum” selloff.

Investor behavior also reflects growing caution. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) sits at –0.05, suggesting that many short-term holders are now selling at mild losses. While not signaling full capitulation (typically near –0.2), it underscores fading confidence.

Long-term investors have also turned into net distributors. The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change fell by 104,000 BTC in October — the largest wave of selling since July. Glassnode noted that until these holders shift back into accumulation, a sustained rebound remains unlikely.

On a more positive note, derivatives activity has cooled following the October liquidation spike. Realized volatility has eased to 43%, while options markets have normalized — the one-week skew, which had soared above 20% amid panic hedging, has since stabilized around neutral levels.

Glassnode concludes that Bitcoin is now in a fragile consolidation phase, with sentiment still soft and structural demand yet to recover. While the worst of the October stress may be over, renewed conviction will be essential for any sustained rally.

At last check, Bitcoin traded just below $107,000, down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours.