A busy week for global central banks could shake up Bitcoin as policymakers confront inflation challenges.

A busy week of monetary policy decisions could shape the outlook for global markets — including Bitcoin — as seven major central banks prepare to announce interest-rate updates while oil prices rise amid geopolitical tensions.

The schedule begins on March 17 with the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. On March 18, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve will follow with their rate announcements. The week concludes on March 19, when the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England and the European Central Bank deliver their decisions.

Until recently, investors broadly expected central banks — particularly the Fed — to move toward lower interest rates this year or at least avoid further tightening. The rapid rise of artificial intelligence, widely viewed as a potential disinflationary force capable of boosting productivity and reshaping labor markets, had reinforced expectations for easier monetary policy. That outlook had helped support risk assets such as bitcoin.

However, geopolitical developments have clouded that scenario.

A conflict that began on Feb. 28 with coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran has since escalated through retaliatory attacks across the region, disrupting energy shipments in the Middle East and driving oil prices higher.

The rise in crude prices has revived concerns that global inflation could accelerate again. As energy costs climb, traders are reconsidering their expectations for central bank policy, with some fearing policymakers may be forced to maintain higher borrowing costs for longer.

Should central banks deliver hawkish signals next week, risk-sensitive assets — including bitcoin — could experience renewed volatility. Policymakers may also be keen to avoid repeating the policy misjudgment of 2021–22, when inflation was initially described as temporary before becoming a major global challenge.

At the same time, markets could react positively if central banks strike a cautious tone. A neutral or data-dependent stance — or signals that inflation pressures may prove temporary — could provide support for risk assets.

Ethan Harris, an economist and long-time observer of the Fed, said central banks often respond cautiously to oil-driven inflation shocks.

“Like all supply shocks, the first Fed response to an oil price spike is to watch and assess the damage,” Harris wrote in a LinkedIn post.

He explained that oil shocks tend to push inflation higher while simultaneously slowing economic growth, creating a difficult trade-off for policymakers.

“Before acting, the Fed wants to determine which risk is greater,” he noted, adding that many energy shocks are temporary. “The Fed does not want to adjust interest rates only to reverse the move weeks later.”

Historically, decisions from the Federal Reserve — and occasionally the Bank of Japan — have had the greatest influence on bitcoin’s price movements.

With rising energy costs already weighing on households and businesses in Japan, the Bank of Japan’s policy decision next Friday could prove particularly significant for both domestic financial markets and bitcoin.

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