According to K33 analysts, Bitcoin may be moving past its historic 4-year cycles as it matures.

K33: Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Narrative Weakens as Macro Forces Take Center Stage

Bitcoin’s price history has long followed a four-year cycle, tightly linked to its halving events. But according to a new analysis from K33 Research, that familiar pattern may be breaking down as the asset matures and becomes more influenced by broader economic trends.

Historically, Bitcoin has surged to new highs in the year after each halving—in 2013, 2017, and 2021—driven largely by sharp reductions in new supply. Those rallies typically peaked around 1,060 days after market bottoms, creating a rhythm many traders have relied on.

Now, K33 suggests that cycle may no longer apply in the same way.

“With each cycle, the impact of halving events continues to fade,” K33 analysts wrote. “Bitcoin has evolved beyond reflexive supply shocks and is increasingly shaped by global macroeconomic conditions.”

They note that institutional adoption, rising correlations with traditional risk assets, and growing involvement from nation-states have shifted the driving forces behind Bitcoin’s movements. Instead of being a purely endogenous asset responding to blockchain-native events, BTC is now reacting more to interest rates, inflation expectations, and liquidity cycles.

K33 concludes that while the four-year cycle may not disappear entirely, traders and investors should start adapting to a new paradigm—one where Bitcoin behaves more like a maturing macro asset than a speculative anomaly.