With Tuesday’s U.S. Inflation Report Expected to Be a Non-Event, Crypto Traders Pile Into Bitcoin and Ether

Bitcoin and Ether Traders Bet Big as Inflation Concerns Fade and Crypto Week Kicks Off

Traders are doubling down on bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) in both decentralized and centralized options markets, showing confidence that Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report will not derail the crypto bull run.

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market cap, surged past $121,000 during Monday’s Asian trading session, gaining 2.7% over the past 24 hours. Year-to-date, BTC is now up nearly 30%, with a 13% gain so far in July, according to CoinDesk data.

Ether also climbed, advancing 3% to approach $3,050. Other major cryptocurrencies, including XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL), posted gains of 3% to 5%.

The bullish sentiment is visible on the decentralized options platform Derive, where significant open interest has accumulated in bitcoin call options with a $130,000 strike price expiring on September 26.

“Roughly 20% of open interest for BTC’s September expiry on Derive sits at the $130K call, signaling expectations for steady price increases over the coming months,” said Nick Forster, founder of Derive.

For ether, around 45% of open interest in the July 18 expiry is clustered at the $3,400 strike, accounting for 16% of ETH’s weekend trading volume. “This indicates traders are anticipating a breakout in ETH,” Forster added.

“Although volatility is lower than during the 2020-2021 cycle, we’re seeing increasing directional conviction, particularly for ether. The next week will be crucial for confirming this trend,” he noted.

Centralized options giant Deribit is reflecting similar optimism, with call options — bullish bets — commanding higher premiums than puts across different expiries for both BTC and ETH.

Inflation Data Shrugs Off Crypto Impact

The main macro event this week is Tuesday’s release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. FactSet expects June’s CPI to rise 0.23% month-on-month, translating to 2.6% annual growth, up from May’s 2.4%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is forecast to rise 3% annually.

In recent years, crypto and traditional markets have closely tracked inflation data for clues on Federal Reserve interest rate policy. This time, however, crypto traders seem largely unconcerned.

According to the founders of LondonCryptoClub, a newsletter service, the ongoing bull market is being driven more by factors like fiscal expansion, global money supply growth, and a weaker dollar than by Fed policy expectations.

“We don’t think CPI matters much right now,” they told CoinDesk. “The U.S. economy is slowing, but not collapsing, and while inflation is sticky, it’s not surging enough to force the Fed back into rate hikes. Plus, a weaker dollar and expanding global money supply keep financial conditions loose.”

They also pointed out shifting U.S. fiscal policies. “With the Trump administration abandoning deficit reduction, we’re seeing a return to the fiscal dominance strategies from the Biden era.”

President Trump’s recently passed tax bill is projected to add over $3 trillion to the national debt, further fueling accommodative financial conditions.

“At the moment, risk appetite and bitcoin prices are being driven more by the fiscal narrative and a weaker dollar than by Fed policy,” the founders added. “As a result, crypto’s sensitivity to CPI data and Fed decisions has decreased.”

Crypto Week and Corporate Adoption Add Support

Meanwhile, the crypto sector could see a regulatory spotlight this week. Dubbed “Crypto Week” by the Trump administration, the House of Representatives is set to debate key legislation, including the Genius Act, Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.

Positive developments on the regulatory front could further insulate the crypto market from macroeconomic uncertainty.

“The bitcoin market is experiencing strong momentum fueled by corporate treasury demand and speculative interest,” said Alexander Blume, CEO of SEC-registered investment firm Two Prime, speaking to CoinDesk. “With the Trump administration calling this ‘Crypto Week,’ I expect positive news that could boost sentiment even further.”

Blume also noted that bitcoin is increasingly trading independently of the broader economy. “Additionally, perceptions of the Fed as politically influenced have lessened the impact that inflation numbers have on rate-cut expectations,” he added.

About The Author