Polymarket Speculators Anticipate Justin Trudeau Will Resign by Friday

Speculation about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation has intensified following dueling reports from two of Canada’s largest newspapers, yet Polymarket bettors seem less convinced that it will happen so soon.

While contracts related to Trudeau’s potential resignation have been a regular feature on Polymarket, two high-volume contracts have recently gained attention. These contracts focus on whether Trudeau will step down by February or April, with an additional contract from December addressing whether opposition parties will trigger an election by the spring.

The renewed speculation about his resignation started on Monday after the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail both released reports suggesting that Trudeau could announce his resignation either on Monday or before the Liberal Party caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The Toronto Star indicated that his departure could come immediately, while the Globe and Mail, which was first to break the story, suggested that the announcement could be made ahead of the Wednesday meeting.

Despite these reports, Polymarket bettors remain skeptical about the timing. A contract betting on Trudeau’s resignation by Monday has just over $45,000 in volume but only gives it a 24% chance of happening. Another contract, speculating that Trudeau will resign by Wednesday, gives it a 72% chance, although the volume on this contract is much smaller at around $10,000. A third contract, predicting his resignation by Friday, gives the event an 80% likelihood.

While the Toronto Star and Globe and Mail both point to sources suggesting that Trudeau’s resignation is imminent, Reuters, citing a different source, reports that Trudeau has yet to make a final decision.

Polling data paints a bleak picture for Trudeau, with Angus Reid’s latest survey showing a 22% approval rating. Poll aggregators suggest that if an election were held today, Trudeau’s Liberal Party would lose heavily, winning just 46 seats, while the Conservatives would gain a commanding 225, securing a majority in Canada’s Parliament.

On a lighter note, another contract on Polymarket gives a 3% chance that Canada will become the 51st state of the U.S. by July — a concept that originated as a tongue-in-cheek suggestion on President-elect Donald Trump’s social media accounts.