BTC Recovers After Geopolitical Jitters, Needs to Hold $98.2K to Sustain Uptrend

Bitcoin Shakes Off Geopolitical Jitters, Holds Steady Above Key Support Level

Bitcoin endured a turbulent weekend as geopolitical tensions rattled global markets, but the world’s largest cryptocurrency has bounced back, maintaining critical support levels that point to lingering bullish sentiment.

At present, bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price (STH RP) sits at $98,200, according to Glassnode data. This figure reflects the average on-chain acquisition cost for BTC that’s been moved within the past 155 days and is held outside of exchange reserves.

This metric, calculated using on-chain analysis, serves as an important indicator of market sentiment. It differentiates between short-term holders—who tend to react quickly to market moves—and long-term holders, offering insight into potential price floors and areas of support.

The broader realized price refers to the average cost basis for all circulating bitcoin, determined by the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. STH RP refines this by focusing on recently active coins, which are statistically more prone to being spent and thus more sensitive to volatility.

Market Volatility Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin’s recent dip was driven by escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and rising fears of broader U.S. involvement. With traditional financial markets closed over the weekend, some investors turned to liquidating bitcoin holdings—not necessarily as a choice, but as a means to free up cash in uncertain times.

Historically, bitcoin trading above the STH RP has signaled strong market confidence and bullish momentum. Conversely, trading below this threshold often coincides with periods of bearish sentiment or market consolidation.

History Highlights STH RP’s Importance

Between June and October 2024, bitcoin consistently traded below its STH RP, which hovered around $62,000 as investors navigated uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential election. A similar pattern occurred from February to April 2025, when bitcoin fell below the STH RP level of about $92,000 amid broader market volatility.

Outlook: Key Level to Watch

Despite this weekend’s turbulence, bitcoin has rebounded sharply, reclaiming levels above $100,000 and currently trading near $101,000. For the bullish trend to persist, it’s crucial that BTC holds above the $98,200 STH RP mark. Staying above this level suggests that short-term holders remain in profit and are less likely to panic sell, helping maintain upward momentum.

While geopolitical risks continue to loom, bitcoin’s resilience above key support levels signals that the broader bullish narrative remains intact for now.