BTC Holds Steady at Key Levels While Oil Undercuts Bearish Bets, Erasing Initial Price Increases in Brent and WTI

Bitcoin Holds Steady as Oil Retreats, Defying Fears of Middle East Escalation

Markets breathed a sigh of relief on Monday as oil prices gave up earlier gains and bitcoin stabilized above key support, signaling that traders remain cautious but not panicked after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions spiked when the U.S. confirmed it had hit Iran’s nuclear sites, and Iran responded with threats to close the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil flows. Yet so far, markets have proven resilient.

Oil Prices Pull Back After Brief Surge

Oil initially surged by about 3% amid fears of disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices later reversed. Brent crude is now trading around $77 per barrel, up just 1.4% for the day, after touching a five-month high of $77.79. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose as high as $78.58 before settling back to $76.75, data from TradingView shows.

This measured response suggests traders believe Iran is unlikely to carry through on threats that could trigger broader conflict or alienate key trading partners.

“Price action this morning suggests that the market doesn’t believe (at least not yet) that flows through Hormuz will be blocked,” wrote analysts at ING in a Monday note. “With over 80% of oil from Hormuz destined for Asia, Iran would risk alienating China and other allies by following through.”

Energy expert Anas Alhajji added that Iran has made similar threats since the 1980s, but a full closure of the Strait would require actions that could provoke a regional war. He noted such a move would hurt Iran’s allies more than its adversaries, given that many oil buyers have alternative supply routes.

Bitcoin Finds Support Above $100,000

Meanwhile, bitcoin has rebounded after briefly dipping below $98,000 on Sunday amid broader risk-off sentiment. As of Monday, BTC is trading above $101,000.

The brief selloff saw traders rushing for downside protection, pushing short-term BTC put options on Deribit to an 8–10% volatility premium over calls. However, sentiment has stabilized as oil prices pulled back.

Technically, bitcoin has maintained crucial support at $100,430—a level it also successfully defended on June 5 before rallying back to $110,000. Should oil prices remain stable, bitcoin and broader crypto markets could avoid the worst-case stagflation fears linked to surging energy costs and slowing growth.

Still, analysts caution that if BTC decisively breaks below support, the focus would shift to the next key area around $95,900, where both the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages converge.