BTC Remains Steady Over $104K as Markets Anticipate Second-Half Momentum

Crypto Markets Drift Lower, but Traders Eye Bullish Setup for Second Half

Bitcoin held steady near $104,700 during early Asia trading hours on Thursday, slipping 1.2% over the past 24 hours as broader crypto markets softened amid cautious macro sentiment, muted volatility, and global trade concerns. Ether (ETH) mirrored the decline, falling 1.8% to just under $2,860.

The subdued action follows Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement, which left interest rates unchanged while reaffirming a cautious stance in response to persistent inflation pressures.

Market Enters Seasonal Slowdown

Crypto markets are entering a historically quiet stretch. According to Singapore-based QCP Capital, June and July often see reduced activity, and this year is no exception. Implied volatility for BTC options has dropped below 40%, erasing the premium driven by recent geopolitical tensions.

Derivatives markets reflect the lull: open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual contracts remains flat, while put options are trading at a premium to calls — a sign that traders are bracing for potential short-term weakness.

Despite the pullback, some analysts remain optimistic. “There’s been no change to the technical picture, which remains supportive of another push to the topside,” said Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group. “BTC continues to consolidate bullishly, and a move through recent highs could open the door to $145,000.”

He added that while ETH continues to lag its 2021 peak, bullish momentum is slowly building. “A break above $2,900 could put $3,400 in play,” Kruger noted.

Regulatory Progress Lends Support

One potential bright spot for crypto is the recent passage of a stablecoin bill in the U.S. Senate. The move is seen as a positive step toward regulatory clarity, which could help fuel further institutional adoption.

“Globally, we’re seeing steady regulatory progress that’s creating a more welcoming environment for large-scale crypto participants,” Kruger said.

Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Optimism

Despite longer-term optimism, short-term caution prevails. With the end of the month approaching, options expirations, portfolio rebalancing, and a lack of major catalysts may keep BTC rangebound between $102,000 and $108,000.

Still, traders are beginning to look ahead. Historically, the second half of the year has been strong for crypto, and some market participants believe the next breakout could come sooner than expected.

“The worst may be behind us,” Kruger said. “And the next leg higher could catch many on the sidelines.”