BTC Hovers Near 50-Day Support Line; Analysts Warn XRP Could Mirror Dogecoin’s Bearish Trend Shift

Bitcoin’s Fate Hinges on 50-Day SMA as Bears Eye Deeper Pullback; XRP Risks Deeper Losses Below Key Cloud Support

Bitcoin is once again hovering near a crucial technical support level, with traders closely watching whether the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) can hold the line—or give way to renewed selling pressure.

As the saying goes, “Once is a chance, twice is a coincidence, but the third time signals a trend.” Right now, that adage fits bitcoin (BTC) perfectly. The cryptocurrency has retreated to its 50-day SMA for the third time this month. On both previous occasions, the level provided solid support and sparked rebounds higher.

The current test is pivotal. A successful defense of the 50-day SMA could establish a bullish pattern, where this average acts as a reliable springboard for new upside moves. However, should the SMA fail, it could trigger intensified selling and potentially send BTC tumbling below the $100,000 mark.

So far, signs of buyer exhaustion are emerging. The rebounds from the SMA have been progressively weaker. During the initial test on June 5, BTC climbed from around $100,500 to over $110,000. But on the second test on June 17, the bounce was more subdued, lifting prices only from $103,000 to $109,000.

Additionally, last week’s Doji candlestick—a sign of indecision in the market—reflects waning bullish momentum above $100,000. Traders say BTC would need a decisive, high-volume push above $110,000 to reestablish short-term bullish confidence.

XRP Faces Bearish Signals

Meanwhile, XRP (XRP) is teetering on the edge of a bearish shift reminiscent of dogecoin (DOGE) earlier this month. XRP is currently trading near the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, a technical indicator that analyzes price momentum and trend direction.

When an asset falls below the Ichimoku cloud, it often signals a bearish turn, prompting traders to consider reducing exposure or opening short positions—especially if other technical signals confirm the shift. That’s exactly what happened with DOGE, which crossed below its cloud earlier this month and has since faced continued price declines.

XRP’s technical picture is already strained, as its 50-day SMA has dropped below the 200-day SMA—a bearish pattern known as a “death cross.” A definitive move beneath the cloud could open the door to deeper losses for XRP, potentially dragging prices under the $2 mark.

Key support for XRP sits around $1.60, which marks the low from early April. Other major altcoins like DOGE, ADA, and LINK have recently breached their Ichimoku clouds, leading to notable price declines.