Improving U.S. Outlook and Advancing Crypto Legislation Could Propel Bitcoin Higher, Says Coinbase

Bitcoin Poised to Outperform as U.S. Growth Picks Up and Crypto Rules Take Shape: Coinbase

A strengthening U.S. economy, clearer regulatory signals, and rising institutional adoption are setting the stage for a bullish second half of 2025 for Bitcoin, according to a new report from Coinbase Research. But the same can’t yet be said for altcoins, whose performance will likely hinge on more specific events and continued uncertainty.

Macro Turns Supportive — and Bitcoin Stands to Gain

After a turbulent start to the year, the U.S. economy is showing renewed momentum. Revised estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model peg Q2 growth at 3.8%, sharply higher than earlier projections. At the same time, investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in the coming months, easing pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin could be a key beneficiary of this shift. Coinbase notes that as dollar strength wanes and inflation expectations stabilize, investors are turning to BTC for its perceived role as digital gold — a hedge in a changing macro landscape. Even with elevated yields on U.S. Treasuries, Bitcoin’s limited supply and growing adoption continue to attract interest from both institutional and retail players.

Altcoins Wait in the Wings

The outlook for altcoins is more nuanced. Without major breakthroughs — such as ETF approvals, high-impact partnerships, or upgrades — many smaller tokens may lag behind. While some coins tied to stablecoin ecosystems or real-world asset platforms could outperform, Coinbase emphasizes that “selectivity will be key” as liquidity remains tight and investor scrutiny high.

Corporate Buying Expands — But Not Without Risk

A notable trend this year has been the rise of corporate crypto treasuries, helped by a 2024 rule change that allows companies to mark crypto assets to market. But Coinbase warns that some firms — particularly those using convertible bonds to finance crypto purchases — may face financial stress if prices fall or refinancing options vanish. The result could be forced selling in periods of volatility, potentially amplifying market swings.

Legislation May Provide Guardrails

On the regulatory front, momentum is building:

The GENIUS Act, a bipartisan stablecoin framework, recently passed the Senate and is headed to the House.
The broader CLARITY Act is also advancing, aiming to clearly define the roles of the SEC and CFTC in overseeing crypto markets.
Meanwhile, the SEC is actively reviewing dozens of ETF proposals, with decisions expected between July and October. These include filings for multi-asset funds, staking-related products, and ETFs focused on alternative cryptocurrencies.

What Comes Next

Coinbase concludes that while Bitcoin is increasingly positioned as a macro asset with strong structural support, the broader market will remain fragmented until regulation, liquidity, and demand conditions improve further.

“We’re seeing a bifurcation in crypto markets,” the report notes. “Bitcoin continues to benefit from policy clarity, corporate adoption, and macro resilience — whereas altcoins must wait for more definitive catalysts to prove their staying power.”