Divergence From Bitcoin Makes Bearish MSTR Trades Attractive, Says 10X Research

MicroStrategy (MSTR) is failing to mirror Bitcoin’s explosive rally, sparking fresh skepticism among analysts. Despite Bitcoin climbing past $110,000, MSTR has stalled—prompting 10x Research to advise bearish positioning on the stock.

In a client note Friday, Markus Thielen of 10x Research recommended a bear put spread strategy: long the $370 put and short the $300 put, both expiring June 27. The position, costing $13.89, caps risk while offering a strong reward if MSTR drops to or below $300.

“The disconnect between Bitcoin’s record highs and MSTR’s stagnation suggests waning sentiment among equity investors,” Thielen wrote. “This setup allows us to monetize the divergence.”

MSTR fell 7% Friday to $369, even as Bitcoin posted new highs. MicroStrategy holds over 576,000 BTC, accumulated largely through leveraged buys since 2020. Historically seen as a proxy for BTC exposure, the company’s stock has diverged sharply from the underlying asset in recent weeks.

While Bitcoin reached fresh all-time highs last week, MSTR peaked near $440, well below its $543 high from November 2021. A similar divergence was observed near the 2021 cycle top, though Thielen cautions against drawing firm conclusions.

Still, the decoupling has raised red flags among institutional desks and crypto traders alike.

“Retail investors may still be chasing upside, but the institutional bid appears more cautious,” Thielen added. “A bearish MSTR spread not only offers a directional view, but also serves as a hedge against potential cracks in Bitcoin’s momentum.”

Thielen, who accurately projected Bitcoin’s recent move into six figures, believes equity underperformance could be an early signal that sentiment is shifting.