Strategy Dips 6%, Key Cryptocurrency Prices Tumble on Uncertainty Around Bitcoin Treasury Methods

Bitcoin held near its record highs on Friday, but companies with BTC-heavy balance sheets weren’t as fortunate. Shares of firms like Strategy (MSTR) and Semler Scientific (SMLR) each dropped around 6%, while Japan’s Metaplanet nosedived 24%, deepening concerns around the business models of so-called “bitcoin treasury” plays.

The pullback came as BTC slipped just over 2% to $109,583, offering a stark contrast to the deeper equity losses. MSTR, for example, was trading at $376, now more than 30% below its late-2024 highs, despite bitcoin reaching new records this week.

The dislocation has re-ignited debate over the sustainability of aggressive BTC acquisition strategies fueled by equity issuance. A growing chorus on social media is calling out the mNAV arbitrage — where companies issue stock at a premium to their bitcoin holdings and recycle proceeds into more BTC.

“When the mNAV drops below 1.0, it’s game over,” warned a popular trader posting under the name lowstrife on X. “These companies are leveraged long BTC through financial sleight of hand. It works—until it doesn’t.”

The comparison to Grayscale’s GBTC is inevitable. During the last bull cycle, GBTC traded at a steep premium before flipping to a discount, eventually sparking cascading failures across the crypto space. Now, critics fear a similar unwind may hit today’s corporate BTC holders.

Still, some argue these concerns are overblown. Adam Back, Blockstream CEO and longtime Bitcoiner, pointed out that companies can always shift strategy: “If mNAV slips, they can sell BTC and repurchase shares, which actually increases BTC per share and aligns with shareholder interests.”

With bitcoin treasuries now considered a legitimate corporate strategy, the conversation is shifting from excitement to risk management—and markets are beginning to price that in.