Coinbase May Miss Earnings Targets as Retail Activity Softens, Analysts Predict

Coinbase (COIN) is bracing for a potentially underwhelming first-quarter earnings report, with multiple Wall Street analysts warning of a downturn driven by weaker retail trading — the crypto exchange’s key revenue engine.

Set to report results after Thursday’s closing bell, Coinbase is expected to post a decline in both revenue and earnings per share (EPS), with estimates from FactSet pointing to EPS of $1.93, down from $2.26 in Q4, and revenue falling to $2.1 billion from $2.27 billion.

The slowdown comes as overall crypto trading activity softened in Q1. JPMorgan trimmed its EPS forecast to $1.59, citing a 10% drop in Coinbase’s trading volume and a declining total market cap. Meanwhile, Barclays cut its revenue and EBITDA outlook, warning that the bullish momentum seen earlier in the year has cooled rapidly.

Compass Point, taking the most bearish stance, downgraded COIN to a “Sell,” highlighting its concerns about Coinbase’s shrinking retail footprint and growing pressure from decentralized exchanges. It now expects retail transaction revenue to come in 7% below consensus.

Yet not all signals are red. Coinbase’s earnings may get a lift from strong growth in stablecoin-related revenue, with USDC’s market cap climbing over 40% in Q1. Barclays estimates this segment contributed over $300 million, helping cushion the blow from declining staking yields amid weaker ether prices.

Oppenheimer remains cautious, lowering its trading volume estimate but acknowledging Coinbase has grown its share of U.S. spot markets — a positive sign, though one that may have limited near-term impact if retail traders remain sidelined.

Coinbase stock has slid 23% year-to-date, reflecting investor unease. Meanwhile, bitcoin has managed a modest gain of 3.8%, trading at $97,023. Analysts warn that without a spark to reignite retail enthusiasm, Coinbase’s revenue rebound could be slow to materialize — even with stablecoins and market share gains in its favor.