Robinhood Faces Q1 Crypto Revenue Decline After Record End to 2024: JPMorgan

Robinhood’s Crypto Revenue Likely to Decline in Q1 Following Record Q4, Says JPMorgan

After posting a dramatic 700% spike in crypto trading revenue during the final quarter of 2024, Robinhood may be headed for a slowdown in early 2025, according to JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington.

The trading platform is scheduled to report Q1 earnings after the U.S. market closes Wednesday. Expectations are muted this time around, with Worthington forecasting a drop in both equity and crypto trading volumes, particularly in the back half of the quarter.

Crypto transaction volume is estimated to have fallen to $52 billion in Q1, down from $71 billion in Q4, as investors shifted to a more cautious stance. The analyst attributes this decline to a “risk-off” market climate that reversed some of the gains seen at the end of last year.

Assets under custody at Robinhood are projected to decrease by 5% from the prior quarter to $183.3 billion, although still marking a strong 41% increase year-over-year. While April brought a temporary boost in trading activity driven by news on U.S. tariffs, Worthington doubts it will significantly impact the quarter’s results.

Adding to the pressure is a drop in margin and derivatives trading demand — a trend not unique to Robinhood, as similar patterns have been noted at rival brokerages like Interactive Brokers.

Worthington maintained a neutral rating on Robinhood shares and revised his price target to $44 from $45, reflecting roughly 10% downside from current levels near $49.