ARK Invest Projects Bitcoin Could Reach $2.4M by 2030 in Most Optimistic Scenario.

Bitcoin’s balance on exchanges has dropped to a six-year low, signaling that investors are holding firm as the price hovers around $94,000.

In a bold move, ARK Invest has updated its long-term Bitcoin price target, now forecasting the cryptocurrency could hit as high as $2.4 million per coin by the end of the decade. This new estimate is based on a revised view of Bitcoin’s active supply, which excludes lost or long-held coins.

At the current price of around $94,000, the updated bullish projection represents a 60% increase from ARK’s January 2024 forecast, implying a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. ARK’s base case sets the Bitcoin price at $1.2 million (53% CAGR), while the bearish outlook suggests $500,000 (32% CAGR).

David Puell, an analyst at ARK, utilized a model that factors in Bitcoin’s increasing market opportunities across various sectors. These include institutional investment, Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold,” adoption as a safe haven in emerging markets, corporate and national treasury allocations, and the rise of decentralized financial services on the Bitcoin network.

In November 2024, Puell had predicted Bitcoin would end the year between $104,000 and $124,000. The cryptocurrency closed December at $93,440, before surging to $109,000 in January 2025. However, the market then corrected, with Bitcoin dipping to $74,500 earlier this month.

The recent price recovery has been fueled in part by the ongoing decline in exchange-held Bitcoin. According to Glassnode, the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen from about 3 million in November 2024 to 2.6 million today. This reduction suggests a shift toward long-term holding, reinforcing the bullish sentiment surrounding the digital asset.