Market Eyes Recovery for BTC, ETH, XRP with Fed Pivot Back in Focus

Crypto Eyes Rebound as Rate Cut Bets Offset Tariff Turmoil

The cryptocurrency market is staging a cautious rebound as investors pivot from geopolitical shocks to macroeconomic catalysts — namely, a growing consensus around Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Market Repricing Around Fed Easing

Traders are now pricing in four quarter-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June, July, September, and December, amid signs of a cooling U.S. economy. These cuts are expected to lower borrowing costs, reduce bond yields, and shift capital toward alternative assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other major cryptocurrencies.

Historically, crypto has outperformed in low-rate environments as investors seek non-traditional hedges and growth exposure in a weaker dollar environment.

The focus now turns to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, which will offer critical insight into labor market strength. “A soft jobs print would increase the likelihood of near-term easing,” said Singapore-based QCP Capital, who noted that the Fed may need to act swiftly if economic momentum stalls.

Tariff Tensions Rattle the Market

Earlier this week, crypto markets whipsawed after former President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, reviving concerns about global trade friction. Prices of major tokens rallied ahead of the speech, only to plummet once the policy was confirmed, erasing early-week gains.

The selloff was preceded by a sharp uptick in exchange inflows, signaling mounting selling pressure:

• 2,500 BTC were transferred to exchanges in a single block.
• ETH inflows surged to 80,000 per hour.
• XRP deposits on Binance skyrocketed to 130 million in one hour, up from a daily average of 10 million.

According to data from CryptoQuant, long positions in BTC and ETH futures also declined, suggesting widespread profit-taking and risk reduction.

Early Signs of Stabilization

By Friday morning, sentiment had begun to shift. BTC remained stable above $83,100, ETH reclaimed $1,800, and XRP, SOL, and ADA each posted over 2% gains. The moves suggest traders may now be pricing in the potential upside of monetary easing — even as short-term volatility remains.

“Positioning is cleaner, and many assets appear oversold,” QCP Capital said. “While downside protection is still in demand, conditions are lining up for a relief rally.”

With macro factors taking center stage and risk sentiment beginning to improve, crypto markets could be on the cusp of a tactical rebound — provided the upcoming labor data doesn’t deliver an unwelcome surprise.

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