MSCI’s Strategy Exit Threatens to Disrupt Its Bitcoin Buying Spree

MSCI’s move to remove Strategy from its major equity indexes could weaken the company’s ability to continue accumulating Bitcoin, analysts warn, although some of the expected impact may already be reflected in its share price.

Index provider MSCI confirmed that Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder, will be dropped from several widely followed global equity benchmarks, including the MSCI USA Index, after the market closes on November 30.

The decision follows a new screening policy for non-operating companies introduced on October 15. The same criteria also resulted in Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet (3350) being removed from the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index.

Market analysts believe the exclusion could make it harder for Strategy to raise capital for additional Bitcoin purchases. However, some argue that investors have already anticipated much of the potential damage.

MSCI indexes track collections of publicly traded companies and serve as benchmarks for numerous investment funds. Funds designed to replicate these indexes are generally required to sell shares when a company is removed, potentially creating additional selling pressure.

However, MSCI’s decision does not mean Strategy will be delisted from stock exchanges or forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings. The company currently holds 850,364 BTC, valued at approximately $62.6 billion.

Potential Selling Pressure From Passive Funds

Estimates of how much selling could follow Strategy’s removal vary considerably among analysts and financial institutions. BloFin Research estimates that index-tracking funds may need to unload approximately 13 million MSTR shares.

According to the research firm, this represents around 3.1% of Strategy’s outstanding shares and less than a single day of its average trading volume.

BloFin Research shared its assessment in an X post, noting that the expected selling could be relatively manageable compared with the stock’s normal market activity.

Strategy reached a similar conclusion in its response to MSCI’s consultation process. The company estimated that funds tracking MSCI’s global investable indexes collectively own approximately 13 million MSTR shares, equivalent to 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding.

Based on Wednesday’s market prices, those holdings were worth roughly $1.6 billion.

JPMorgan presented a considerably larger estimate in November 2025, suggesting that MSCI’s exclusion could generate approximately $2.8 billion in outflows. The potential figure could increase to $8.8 billion if other major index providers adopted similar restrictions.

However, JPMorgan’s projection was based on MSCI’s original proposal rather than the final screening framework adopted following its review.

How MSCI’s Decision Could Affect Bitcoin Purchases

The more significant concern is not necessarily the immediate selling pressure but its potential effect on Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition strategy.

Strategy has traditionally relied on raising capital through convertible debt, preferred shares, and common stock offerings to finance additional BTC purchases.

BloFin Research warned that losing demand from passive index funds could place further downward pressure on the company’s market net asset value (mNAV) premium, which currently stands near 1.08x.

A declining premium could make issuing new shares less attractive and reduce the company’s ability to expand its Bitcoin reserves.

The mNAV multiple measures how the market values a company’s equity relative to the underlying value of its Bitcoin holdings. When the multiple exceeds 1, investors are effectively paying more for the company’s shares than the value of its BTC reserves. A reading below 1 indicates that the stock trades at a discount to those holdings.

Strategy’s capital-raising model has historically benefited from maintaining an mNAV above 1. In that situation, the company can issue shares at a premium and use the proceeds to purchase additional Bitcoin, potentially increasing the amount of BTC backing each existing share.

However, when the premium approaches 1, new equity offerings generate considerably less benefit. If the multiple falls below 1, issuing additional shares could dilute existing shareholders rather than increase their Bitcoin exposure on a per-share basis.

BloFin Research believes the loss of passive index demand could intensify this pressure and weaken Strategy’s ability to continue its aggressive accumulation strategy.

Strategy’s mNAV Premium Has Already Fallen Sharply

Strategy’s valuation premium has contracted considerably from its November 2024 peak of approximately 3.4x to around 1.08x.

Recent financial disclosures also highlight how the company has adjusted its capital allocation as the premium has narrowed.

In a November 9 filing covering the week ended November 8, Strategy reported raising $283.8 million through the sale of approximately 2.05 million common shares.

However, only $81.9 million of those proceeds went toward purchasing Bitcoin, allowing the company to acquire 1,036 BTC.

The majority of the funds, approximately $188.3 million, were directed toward repurchasing STRC preferred shares. Another $13.6 million was added to the company’s cash reserves.

The filing also showed that Strategy maintained approximately $4.77 billion in cash as of November 8. During the reporting week, the company used $21.1 million from that reserve to cover preferred stock dividends and reported no Bitcoin sales.

Analysts Believe Much of the Damage May Already Be Priced In

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes the MSCI exclusion is unlikely to create a major surprise for investors because the market has had considerable time to anticipate the decision.

He argued that Strategy’s shares could continue underperforming as the valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings approaches parity.

Thielen also dismissed concerns about a significant impact on Bitcoin’s broader market performance, explaining that publicly traded treasury companies have become less influential in driving BTC demand as their valuation premiums have declined.

He noted that investors increasingly recognize that simply holding Bitcoin does not necessarily create additional value beyond the underlying asset itself.

Although benchmark-tracking funds will need to reduce their MSTR positions, Thielen expects other market participants to absorb those shares at somewhat lower prices.

He also pointed out that several funds were already underweight Strategy compared with their benchmark allocations, potentially limiting the actual selling pressure.

Derin Olenik, an independent Bitcoin analyst, takes a more cautious position.

While his estimate of potential selling pressure is broadly consistent with JPMorgan’s $2.8 billion projection, Olenik believes the larger concern involves damage to the institutional adoption narrative supporting Bitcoin treasury companies.

He warned that Strategy’s exclusion could generate more than $2.8 billion in selling pressure, potentially exceeding $11 billion if additional index providers follow MSCI’s decision.

Beyond the immediate market impact, Olenik believes the development could undermine the institutional investment narrative on which the broader Bitcoin treasury model increasingly depends.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin Treasury Companies?

Thielen believes Bitcoin treasury firms may need to evolve beyond simply accumulating BTC if they want to maintain investor interest and justify higher valuations.

He suggested that these companies should operate more like asset managers, using their Bitcoin holdings in yield-generating strategies and other productive activities to demonstrate their ability to outperform the broader market.

According to Thielen, achieving that transition would require a different set of capabilities rather than relying primarily on financial engineering and capital raising.

Olenik expressed a similar view, describing MSCI’s exclusion as a necessary development and arguing that the industry should move toward what he calls “Treasury 2.0.”

Under this approach, companies would focus on building businesses around Bitcoin rather than simply adding more coins to their balance sheets.

That could involve developing Bitcoin infrastructure, expanding network adoption, increasing monetary utility, and creating operating models that generate returns through productive use of BTC.

The broader idea is to turn Bitcoin holdings into an active business asset that can generate and compound value for shareholders, rather than relying exclusively on rising Bitcoin prices and repeated equity issuance.

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