Bitcoin’s Technical Indicator Repeats Warning Pattern That Preceded Previous Crashes

Bitcoin is displaying a bearish chart formation that closely resembles the technical setups observed before its sharp declines in February and June. The latest warning comes from the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA), although historical seasonal trends and post-midterm election performance offer a more positive outlook.

Developed by trader Daryl Guppy, the GMMA indicator helps assess market direction by comparing short-term trading activity with longer-term investor behavior. It uses two groups of moving averages, each representing a different market timeframe.

The short-term group reflects traders’ immediate sentiment, while the longer-term averages provide insight into broader investor positioning.

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the price trading below both groups. More importantly, the shorter-term averages have crossed beneath the longer-term ones, indicating that selling pressure among traders is increasing.

Long-Term Moving Averages Confirm Bearish Momentum

A crossover between the two GMMA groups can indicate weakening momentum, but it does not automatically establish a lasting downtrend. Short-term traders can quickly change their positions, making the behavior of longer-term averages important for confirmation.

In Bitcoin’s current setup, the longer-term moving averages are also beginning to turn downward. The red lines within this group are contracting and developing a negative slope, suggesting investors are becoming less willing to accumulate BTC at prevailing prices.

The combination of declining short-term and long-term averages strengthens the bearish interpretation of the chart.

Earlier Signals Preceded Bitcoin’s Sharp Sell-Offs

Bitcoin produced a similar GMMA formation in late May, before falling below $60,000 during the first week of June.

A comparable crossover appeared in late January and was followed by a decline from approximately $90,000 to around $62,000.

These previous episodes have increased attention on the current indicator reading. However, GMMA signals are not consistently accurate and should not be treated as standalone predictions of future price movements.

Bitcoin demonstrated this limitation in August and September 2025, when bearish confirmations appeared but prices subsequently reversed higher.

ETF Withdrawals and Options Activity Add Pressure

The current technical weakness is developing alongside deteriorating demand indicators in the US market. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded substantial withdrawals, while activity in the options market points to increased demand for protection against further declines.

These developments suggest investors are either reducing their Bitcoin exposure or preparing for additional downside volatility.

Nevertheless, the broader outlook is not entirely negative. Seasonal trends have historically supported Bitcoin during this period, and the cryptocurrency has tended to perform well following US midterm elections.

Bitcoin is therefore facing conflicting market signals. Whether the latest GMMA warning develops into another significant downturn or gives way to a seasonal recovery should become clearer over the coming trading sessions.

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