Bitcoin May Be Breaking Away From Its Midterm Cycle Bottom Pattern

Bitcoin’s previous bear-market bottoms occurred after U.S. midterm elections, but its recovery this year suggests the market may have reached its low several months ahead of the vote.

With the U.S. midterm elections only 10 days away, Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing a period that has historically aligned with major bear-market lows. However, the cryptocurrency’s recent rebound raises questions about whether the same timeline will hold in 2026.

Bitcoin reached cycle lows in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, each following the preceding midterm elections. These bottoms came approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.

This year’s low arrived much earlier. Bitcoin fell to $57,850 on July 1, about 125 days before the Nov. 3 election. By Oct. 22, it had climbed to approximately $81,455, representing a recovery of around 40% from its July low.

Historical market data also shows that Bitcoin faced considerable selling pressure during the months leading up to previous midterms. The cryptocurrency declined roughly 29% in the six months before the 2018 elections and about 37% ahead of the 2022 vote.

Technology stocks have also weakened around some midterm elections. The Invesco QQQ Trust dropped approximately 23% between the end of September and its December 2018 low, with much of the decline occurring after election day. Before the 2022 midterms, QQQ fell 17% over three months. However, the fund gained 17% during the six months preceding the 2014 midterms, indicating that the trend has not been consistent across every cycle.

Bitcoin and QQQ have both lost around 6% over the past 30 days. Over a 90-day period, however, Bitcoin remained up 26%, while QQQ recorded a gain of approximately 3%. The technology-focused fund has retreated from its record high of $762.86, reached on Oct. 6.

Overall, the comparison indicates that Bitcoin’s recurring weakness around midterm elections may be more closely connected to its broader market cycles than to the election calendar itself.