XRP Struggles at $3—Can Bulls Regain Control? Technical Outlook

XRP Struggles to Gain Traction After SEC Case Dismissal, Bearish Signals Mount

Despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropping its lawsuit against Ripple, XRP has failed to sustain a strong rally. While many in the crypto community expected the resolution to fuel significant price gains, technical indicators now suggest a potential bearish shift.

Last week, an XRP enthusiast on X voiced their frustration, saying, “You’re not bullish enough!” following the SEC’s decision. The ruling was widely seen as removing a major obstacle that held XRP back during the 2021 bull market. Optimism about an XRP-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) and speculation regarding its potential inclusion in the U.S. strategic reserve further added to the excitement.

However, despite this optimism, XRP’s price remains range-bound between $2.30 and $2.50. While the token initially spiked 11% to $2.59 last Wednesday, it has struggled to build on those gains, raising concerns about a possible trend reversal.

Technical Indicators Warn of Potential Downtrend

Three-Line Break Chart Signals a Bearish Turn

The three-line break chart, which focuses on significant price trends while filtering out short-term noise, has printed a red bar on the weekly timeframe. This suggests a shift toward bearish momentum, as similar patterns have historically preceded prolonged downturns, including the declines in 2018 and 2021.

MACD and Moving Averages Indicate Weakness

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a tool used to measure trend strength, has been showing deeper negative bars below the zero line, a signal that bearish momentum is increasing.

Additionally, the 5-week and 10-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have crossed downward, reinforcing the idea that the path of least resistance could be to the downside.

Bollinger Bands Show Overextension

XRP’s Bollinger Bands—volatility bands that track price extremes—have expanded significantly due to its late 2024 and early 2025 rally. Historically, such widening has preceded market corrections, as observed in previous cycles.

Key Level for Bulls to Regain Control

For XRP to invalidate the bearish signals and resume an upward trend, it needs to break above the $3 resistance level—its high from March 2. A decisive push past this level would suggest renewed bullish momentum and negate the lower-highs pattern currently forming.

While some analysts predict that XRP could reach $10 by the end of the decade, the short-term outlook remains uncertain. If buyers fail to reclaim control, the risk of further downside remains high.