Bitcoin Drops to $83,300 as Bond Yields Reach 2007 High

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, weighing on U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies before dip buyers emerged across Asian and European markets.

Bitcoin recovered briefly early Thursday before giving up those gains. BTC was trading at $83,344, down 1.23% since midnight UTC, as the Treasury selloff continued to pressure crypto markets for a second consecutive day.

The broader crypto market also moved lower. Ether fell 1.55% to $2,659.02, XRP declined 2.87%, and Solana dropped 1.61% to $113.14. Smaller tokens staged a modest recovery during the European morning before reversing lower, with NEAR and HYPE now down 3.32% and 3.94%, respectively.

The dollar index (DXY) gained 0.13% to 101.24, its highest level since July. Gold declined 0.71% to $4,257, while U.S. equity futures pointed to another weaker session. S&P 500 futures fell 0.61%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped more than 1%.

Derivatives Positioning

Bearish taker flow persists: Shorts accounted for more than 52% of 24-hour taker volume, which increased 10% to $250 billion. At the same time, open interest declined nearly 6% to $149 billion. The combination of higher volume, lower OI and a short-heavy flow suggests traders are closing existing positions rather than aggressively establishing new short bets.

Bitcoin OI is falling faster than price: BTC futures open interest declined 6% while bitcoin’s price dropped 3% over 24 hours. Because OI is measured in notional terms, the larger decline indicates actual contracts are being closed rather than simply losing dollar value as BTC falls. The move is therefore consistent with long positions being unwound rather than a major buildup of new shorts.

Binance whales remain less bearish: The whale long/short account ratio on Binance, the largest exchange by trading volume, has climbed back above 1 to 1.30. The whale position ratio has also remained below 2 for a second consecutive day. Large traders appear to be staying on the sidelines or taking positions against the broader selling pressure, creating a divergence worth monitoring.

XRP follows bitcoin, while ETH and SOL differ: XRP’s notional open interest is declining faster than its price, similar to BTC, suggesting genuine position closures. For ETH and SOL, OI has fallen roughly in line with their price declines, indicating that existing positions are losing dollar value rather than being actively unwound.

CVD highlights broad selling: The 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta remains negative across major assets including BTC and ETH, indicating aggressive selling is outweighing aggressive buying. XRP, SUI and AVAX recorded some of the most negative readings, pointing to particularly heavy selling pressure in those markets.

Litecoin stands apart: LTC has gained nearly 8% over 24 hours, while its futures OI, measured in tokens, has climbed to 8.96 million, the highest since Jan. 18. Open interest has risen steadily since Sept. 19. The simultaneous increase in price and coin-denominated OI provides a stronger indication of fresh long positioning rather than simple short covering.

Implied volatility remains contained: Thirty-day implied volatility for BTC and ETH remains within recent ranges, while short-term implied volatility continues to trade relatively cheaply compared with realized volatility. Options markets therefore show little sign of panic despite the decline in spot prices.

Options positioning turns defensive: Bitcoin’s one-week options skew has moved into positive territory, signaling increased demand for downside protection. Ethereum has shown a similar shift, consistent with the broader deterioration in market sentiment.

Large options expiry approaches: More than $17 billion worth of BTC and ETH options are scheduled to expire on Deribit Friday, with most contracts currently in the money. Traders will be watching whether positions are rolled into later expiries or allowed to settle, as either outcome could increase volatility heading into the weekend.

Token Performance

Litecoin held onto its gains despite the broader market weakness, rising 8.1% since midnight UTC and 6.2% over the past 24 hours. The rally comes as traders position ahead of next July’s block reward halving, with historical market bottoms typically forming six to 12 months before halvings.

Ethereum Classic gained 7.6% over the day to $9.42, while lending protocol token Morpho rose 4.1% to $2.67.

The sharpest declines were concentrated among tokens that had rallied strongly earlier in the week. AI inference token Venice fell 5.2% since midnight and 9.6% over 24 hours to $28.71. Perpetuals exchange token Lighter declined 4.2% and 2.1% over the respective periods to $5.09, while Pump.fun dropped 4.1% on the day and 11% over 24 hours.

Hyperliquid fell 3.9% to $90.39, while NEAR declined 3.1% to $4.20. Venice was down 8.7% over 24 hours despite ranking among the week’s strongest performers.

Among major cryptocurrencies, XRP and Bitcoin Cash posted the steepest declines. Both fell 2.7% since midnight UTC, trading at $1.46 and $328.56, respectively. XRP was down 8.3% over 24 hours, while Bitcoin Cash declined 6.8%, giving back part of Wednesday’s gains following the CME futures announcement.

About The Author