Bitcoin Weathers September Storm as Rate Hike and Clarity Act Test Bulls

Bitcoin has fallen only 1.5% during September, traditionally its weakest month, and remains on track for its first quarterly gain in a year despite higher interest rates, rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar.

More than halfway through September, bitcoin’s usual monthly decline has remained relatively limited even as markets have faced a series of policy and macroeconomic challenges.

Market observers say the price action points to underlying bullish strength.

Bitcoin surged 25% in August to roughly $81,000, raising expectations that September’s historically weak seasonality would erase a significant portion of those gains. Since 2013, bitcoin has posted an average September decline of about 3%.

So far, however, the cryptocurrency is down only 1.5% this month. With less than two weeks left in the quarter, bitcoin remains up roughly 32% for Q3, putting it on course for its first quarterly advance since the third quarter of 2025.

Bitcoin was trading around $78,000 at the time of writing, close to its level before Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate hike. The increase was widely viewed as a negative factor for cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive assets.

Despite several developments that could have pressured prices lower, bitcoin has largely held its ground.

On Tuesday, the Clarity Act failed to reach the 60 votes required to move forward in the Senate, receiving support from only 49 senators. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $74,887 before quickly stabilizing. The limited reaction indicated that traders may have already accounted for much of the potential downside from the legislation’s failure.

“What stands out to me is that Bitcoin has hardly budged at all in response to two objectively bad pieces of news. A 25-basis-point hike and the CLARITY Act failing to pass are both headlines that, in a different market environment, would have sent price meaningfully lower. Instead, we got basically nothing,” Mitchell Askew, head of Blockware Intelligence at Blockware, said in an email.

Signs of Seller Fatigue

Askew argued that when negative developments no longer produce significant price declines, it can indicate that selling pressure is becoming exhausted.

“Anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold. They no longer have coins to sell. That is an incredibly positive sign for the medium to long term, and it is exactly what you tend to see in the later stages of a bottoming process,” she said.

Oil prices added another source of pressure earlier this week. West Texas Intermediate crude moved above $106 a barrel on Tuesday, reaching a five-month high as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued.

The dollar also strengthened. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of major currencies, moved above 100 to its highest level in more than a month. A sustained rise in the dollar can tighten financial conditions and put pressure on risk assets such as bitcoin.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in 31 years.

Sygnum Bank said these developments do not necessarily create a negative backdrop for bitcoin. Higher rates and bond yields can sometimes coincide with stronger performance from assets viewed as stores of value.

“It’s not a one-way street. You see yields rising, and at the same time Bitcoin and gold outperforming. If rising rates are an indication of debasement risk and sovereign counterparty risk, then for store of value assets that is actually a positive driver,” Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum, said in an email.

Bitcoin’s Next Move

The key takeaway for bitcoin is its ability to remain above $77,000 despite the combination of regulatory disappointment, higher oil prices, tighter monetary policy and a stronger dollar.

Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group, said bitcoin’s resilience could leave room for another advance if broader conditions improve.

“If the market has been this resilient when the news flow has been challenging, even a modest improvement in macro, geopolitical or regulatory conditions could provide the catalyst for the next major leg higher,” Kruger said.

The regulatory picture also received a more constructive development after the Senate vote. On Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Commission introduced its long-awaited innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues, allowing qualifying platforms to facilitate onchain stock trading under specified conditions.

“The failure to advance the legislation delays a statutory framework, but it does not prevent the SEC and CFTC from continuing to provide guidance under existing authority, leaving an important regulatory pathway open,” Kruger said.

Some market participants remain concerned that the Federal Reserve could deliver additional rate increases and that Treasury yields could climb further. Markets are currently pricing in three additional 25-basis-point increases by April 2027, potentially taking the federal funds rate to 4.50%-4.75%.

Dori, however, said higher rates do not automatically prevent digital assets from outperforming.

“I do not fully agree that rates need to fall in order for digital assets to outperform,” he said.

Seasonality remains one of the few factors offering a less supportive backdrop for bitcoin heading into next week.

According to CoinGlass, bitcoin has historically declined an average of 2.5% during the year’s 38th week and has recorded gains in only four instances.

Historical patterns, however, do not guarantee future performance. Bitcoin’s seasonal trend typically becomes more favorable in the final quarter, with the cryptocurrency gaining an average of 77% in Q4, according to CoinDesk data.

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