Bitcoin Clears Key Resistance, but Analysts Debate Whether a Bull Run Has Begun

• Market observers say sudden price surges combined with waves of forced short liquidations are often associated with market bottoms, although broader economic risks have not disappeared.
• Bitcoin has shown strong momentum in recent sessions, according to Mati Greenspan, former senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics.
• Greenspan said the current pattern resembles previous market bottoms, which often begin with a short squeeze and a powerful upward move before Bitcoin breaks through major technical resistance. As prices rise, traders who had been waiting for much lower entry points can quickly shift toward buying to avoid missing the rally.
• Asked whether Bitcoin could still suffer another major decline, Greenspan acknowledged that another pullback remains possible but said he would not make that his base case. He argued that fear of missing out can become especially powerful during sharp recoveries.
• Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, took a more cautious view. He warned that it may be premature to declare the bear market over without sustained spot ETF inflows and clearer evidence of easier monetary conditions. Bitcoin could still lose momentum as it approaches major overhead resistance, he said.
• Bitcoin climbed as high as $79,200 on Friday before retreating toward $77,500.
• Greenspan remained bullish, saying the current market structure looks familiar and that he sees limited risk of a major pullback at present.
• He pointed to several factors supporting the move, including discussions from the White House about Bitcoin Treasury initiatives, congressional efforts to establish digital-asset market rules, and moves by the SEC and CFTC toward clearer crypto regulation.
• Fernandes also highlighted the broader macro backdrop. He said the Treasury’s decision to double its bond-buyback operations to $4 billion helped push long-term yields lower and improved sentiment toward risk assets.
• He added that Bitcoin’s extended period of trading below roughly $64,000-$66,000 allowed large short positions to accumulate.
• Once Bitcoin began moving higher, those positions faced forced closures, creating a cascade of liquidations that accelerated the rally. Breaking resistance around $66,000 and the 200-day moving average also triggered additional algorithmic buying, Fernandes said.
• Adam Morgan McCarthy, lead researcher at London-based digital-asset liquidity and market-data firm LO:TECH, offered a similar explanation, arguing that forced short covering was a major driver of Bitcoin’s move toward $70,000.
• More than half of Bitcoin’s 7.1% gain on Wednesday occurred within a single hour, despite that period accounting for only about one-third of the day’s trading volume. McCarthy said the concentration was a typical sign of a short squeeze.
• McCarthy contrasted Bitcoin’s move with gold, arguing that gold provided a clearer indication of macroeconomic demand. Gold rose steadily after Treasury announced larger bond purchases without the forced buying seen in Bitcoin.
• In his view, investors seeking protection from currency depreciation and inflation appeared more clearly in the gold market than in Bitcoin during the week.
• Tobias Bauer, co-founder of TBV, noted that Binance processed about $1.26 billion in Bitcoin futures volume within a single 60-second period, roughly 361 times the normal volume for one minute.
• With funding rates now near exchange limits, Bauer warned that the market has become heavily skewed in one direction and that maintaining a leveraged long position at current levels is becoming increasingly costly.

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