Bitcoin’s Next Big Move Could Be Near, On-Chain Options Platform Derive Suggests

Bitcoin’s Quiet Phase May Soon End as Market Braces for Volatility, Derive Warns

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price stability could be short-lived, with major volatility expected to return soon, according to Nick Forster, founder of the decentralized crypto options platform Derive.

Since March 12, BTC has traded within the $80K-$85K range after a sharp sell-off from $100K. This decline was fueled by concerns over President Donald Trump’s new tariffs and disappointment that the U.S. government had not expanded its strategic Bitcoin holdings.

The recent consolidation has pushed key volatility indicators to multi-week lows, but Forster warns that a return to higher price swings is likely.

“Bitcoin’s weekly at-the-money (ATM) volatility has dropped to 49%, approaching its lowest levels in a month,” Forster wrote in a note to CoinDesk. “Realized volatility has also declined sharply from 91% at the start of March to 54%, signaling an impending breakout.”

Forster stressed that rising volatility doesn’t necessarily indicate an upward move—it simply means Bitcoin is likely to see larger price fluctuations in the near future.

“Volatility is cyclical, and we’re nearing the end of a low-volatility phase,” he explained. “Whether the price surges or drops, the calm period is unlikely to last.”

Potential catalysts for market turbulence include geopolitical developments such as the Ukraine conflict and shifting U.S. regulatory policies under the Trump administration.

Traders are also closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. Markets are pricing in two to three cuts this year, but if the Fed delivers a more cautious outlook, risk assets like Bitcoin could face additional pressure.

BlackRock analysts recently warned that expectations for aggressive rate cuts may be misplaced. “Despite recession fears, persistent inflation remains a concern, which could limit the Fed’s ability to ease monetary policy significantly,” they wrote in a research note.

If traditional markets continue to struggle, Bitcoin’s anticipated volatility surge could push prices lower, adding to the uncertainty in an already fragile market.

Derive, a leading on-chain AI-powered options platform with over $15 billion in cumulative trading volume and nearly $100 million in total value locked (TVL), continues to monitor these developments as traders prepare for Bitcoin’s next major move.

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