ETF Outflows Misread? Bitcoin Selling May Be Arbitrage-Driven, Not SpaceX-Linked

Some analysts argue that Bitcoin is being sold as investors raise cash for upcoming IPOs such as SpaceX and Anthropic, but Sygnum CIO Fabian Dori says market evidence does not back that claim.

Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $5.75 billion in outflows since mid-May, leading to speculation that institutional investors are reducing crypto exposure ahead of a pipeline of major listings starting with SpaceX.

The selling helped push Bitcoin below $60,000 in early June—its weakest level since 2026 and more than 50% below its all-time high near $125,000 in October. The move has been widely interpreted as a rotation of capital from crypto into IPO-related opportunities.

Dori disagrees with that interpretation.

“The ETF outflows are real,” he told CoinDesk, “but the data does not support Bitcoin weakness being driven by the SpaceX IPO.”

He says that if investors were truly liquidating Bitcoin to fund IPO allocations, it would likely be reflected in abnormal exchange outflows and a noticeable drop in stablecoin supply as capital left the crypto ecosystem. Neither signal is currently evident.

Exchange activity remains broadly stable, while stablecoin market cap has not seen meaningful contraction. At the same time, more speculative crypto segments continue to attract inflows, which would be unlikely if investors were broadly exiting the asset class.

Instead, Dori points to derivatives positioning as a more convincing explanation.

He highlights the decline in CME Bitcoin futures open interest alongside ETF redemptions, suggesting that much of the selling is likely tied to the unwinding of cash-and-carry arbitrage trades rather than capital shifting into equities.

In this strategy, investors buy spot Bitcoin—often via ETFs—while shorting futures to capture the price spread between the two markets. When that premium narrows or funding conditions weaken, the trade is unwound, leading to ETF outflows even without bearish sentiment.

“Open interest and funding rates moved very positively together over the same period,” Dori said, arguing that this pattern is consistent with arbitrage unwinding rather than a broader exit from Bitcoin exposure.