Gold’s longest slump in a century collides with bitcoin’s comeback

Gold is experiencing its worst stretch in more than a century, while bitcoin is gaining relative strength, driving the BTC-to-gold ratio roughly 30% higher since the Middle East conflict intensified.

The precious metal has declined for 10 straight trading sessions—its longest losing streak since February 1920—according to Katie Greifeld. Prices have dropped as much as 27% from January’s all-time high, sliding to around $4,090 before finding support at the 200-day moving average, a level closely watched as a marker of longer-term trend direction.

Gold has since bounced about 2% over the past 24 hours, suggesting the sell-off may be losing momentum. Even so, it remains down roughly 12% since tensions escalated in late February.

Meanwhile, bitcoin—often referred to as “digital gold”—is holding above $70,000. This has pushed the bitcoin-to-gold ratio to just under 16 ounces, up from around 12 ounces before the conflict began, highlighting bitcoin’s outperformance over the same period.

Charlie Morris highlighted the longer-term trend, noting that bitcoin has steadily appreciated against gold since first surpassing one ounce in 2017. The ratio has since moved higher across multiple cycles and now sits near 16 ounces, with potential to climb further if gold continues to weaken.

Historically, gold tends to lead market cycles, often rallying first before entering a consolidation phase, allowing bitcoin to catch up and outperform.

However, Eric Balchunas argues the relationship between the two assets is not strictly inverse but largely uncorrelated. He pointed out that gold-backed ETFs such as SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) have seen billions of dollars in outflows over the past week.

By comparison, bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $2.5 billion in inflows this month, with only around $140 million in net outflows year-to-date, despite bitcoin still being roughly 20% lower over that period.

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