Bitcoin has maintained relative strength versus gold since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, but investors may be best served holding “dry powder” as prices swing on headlines, according to Wintermute trader Bryan Tan.
BTC $70,700.76 edged toward $69,000 on Thursday as the Middle East conflict intensified, targeting energy infrastructure and sending ripples across global markets.
Oil remained in focus, climbing back above $100 a barrel after a Politico report indicated the U.S. is not considering a crude export ban, reversing earlier declines and keeping inflation concerns elevated.
Equities reacted to the uncertainty. Traders considered the possibility that central banks could delay rate cuts—or even raise rates—to counter inflationary pressures from energy shocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell nearly 1% in morning trading, marking fresh 2026 lows.
Metals saw larger moves. Gold dropped 5% to around $4,500 an ounce, its lowest since early February, while silver fell 6.6%, extending a sharp unwind after weeks of outsized gains.
By comparison, crypto markets were more stable. Bitcoin traded near $69,400, down roughly 2.6% on the day. Other major tokens—including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB $643.75, and solana (SOL)—saw losses under 3%, while the CoinDesk 20 Index slid about 2.1%.
Crypto-linked stocks also retreated, though less sharply than broader markets. Coinbase (COIN) fell 1.7%, bitcoin-focused MicroStrategy (MSTR) dropped 2.6%, and stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) gave back 6%, retracing some of the gains it had made over the past three weeks.
Bitcoin holds up amid risk-off flows
The simultaneous declines in both gold and bitcoin suggest broad de-risking rather than a rotation into traditional safe havens, said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet. Rising energy prices are feeding inflation expectations, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” interest rate outlook and tighter liquidity—a challenging environment for risk assets.
Still, bitcoin has outperformed gold by roughly 20% since the start of the Iran conflict, Tan noted—a rare dynamic for an asset often treated as high-risk. Yet its failure to sustain levels above $75,000 indicates that markets remain cautious and rangebound.
“Sentiment swings on every headline, and bitcoin’s correlation to oil is elevated. Staying flat can be the strongest position,” Tan said. “We recommend holding dry powder until there’s a meaningful directional move or a material shift in market conditions.”
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