Bitcoin trades above $74,000 ahead of the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, buoyed by eight consecutive daily gains. Yet data from bitcoin lender Two Prime suggests caution: FOMC meetings have historically triggered short-term BTC weakness.
In 2025, bitcoin posted negative returns in the 48 hours following seven of eight FOMC meetings. Even during May’s sharp rally, the broader trend points to consistent post-meeting pullbacks, indicating that the event itself—not the outcome—often drives volatility.
The March decision is widely expected to be uneventful. Markets price near certainty—about 99%—that the Fed will hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Futures anticipate only a single 25-basis-point cut by year-end, maintaining a “higher-for-longer” backdrop, even with Kevin Warsh slated to become Fed chair in June.
Macro factors add to the uncertainty. Rising tensions in the Middle East and oil near $100 a barrel could push CPI inflation higher, constraining the Fed’s flexibility amid a weakening jobs market.
With bitcoin entering the meeting on a bullish streak, the main risk is a classic “sell the news” reaction.
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