Citigroup has revised lower its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin and ether, citing slower progress on U.S. crypto legislation, softer network activity and reduced expectations for ETF-driven demand.
The bank now sees bitcoin (BTC) reaching $112,000 over the next year, down from its earlier projection of $143,000. Ether (ETH) is expected to climb to $3,175, compared with a previous forecast of $4,304.
Even with the downgrade, both assets still have meaningful upside from current levels. Bitcoin was trading near $74,000 at publication time, while ether hovered around $2,330.
Citi emphasized that ETF inflows remain the primary driver for higher prices, though it has trimmed its assumptions. The bank now expects roughly $10 billion in bitcoin ETF inflows and $2.5 billion for ether over the next 12 months, despite modest resilience in recent demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.
The broader crypto market, however, has struggled to regain traction since bitcoin’s record highs in October. Prices have softened as risk appetite faded and post-halving enthusiasm cooled. Bitcoin has slipped below key technical levels, while ether has lagged further due to weak onchain activity. Still, steady ETF inflows have helped stabilize prices despite ongoing macro and geopolitical pressures.
Regulation in the U.S. remains a critical factor for the outlook. Citi noted that the window for passing comprehensive crypto legislation this year is narrowing, with market-implied odds now around 60%. While global regulatory developments remain supportive, the bank argues that major U.S. legislation would provide a stronger catalyst for institutional inflows than incremental policy changes.
At the center of the debate is the CLARITY Act, a sweeping proposal that has cleared the House but remains stalled in the Senate amid competing drafts.
The legislation is viewed as key to resolving regulatory uncertainty, as it would define how digital assets are classified and clarify oversight between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. By establishing clearer rules for token categories and exchange registration, it aims to reduce legal ambiguity and encourage greater institutional participation.
Citi also pointed to weakening momentum since bitcoin’s October peak, highlighting futures liquidations, positioning fatigue and prices sitting below key technical levels. In the near term, bitcoin may continue to trade within a range, with $70,000 seen as an important psychological level tied to pre-election pricing.
The bank outlined a range of potential outcomes. In a bullish scenario, stronger investor adoption — particularly via ETFs — could drive bitcoin to $165,000 and ether to $4,488. In a bearish case shaped by recessionary conditions, targets fall to $58,000 for BTC and $1,198 for ETH.
Ether’s outlook remains less certain, Citi said, given its reliance on network activity, which has recently been subdued. However, longer-term catalysts such as stablecoin growth, tokenization trends and potential regulatory focus on decentralized finance could help support demand going forward.
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