Weakening Correlation With Tech Stocks Puts Bitcoin on Course for Best Week Since September 2025

Bitcoin is on pace for its strongest weekly gain since September 2025, rising about 8.5% over the past seven days and holding above the $71,000 level. The move comes as bitcoin begins to show signs of diverging from traditional assets while institutional demand slowly returns.

Over the last week, bitcoin has started to move independently from the broader market. Using iShares Bitcoin Trust as a short-term gauge, the ETF has climbed roughly 3.5% in the past five days and approached a one-month high by Friday.

Other markets, however, have struggled. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF, Gold and U.S. equities have all drifted lower throughout the week. The divergence suggests bitcoin’s close relationship with technology and software stocks may be loosening, at least in the short term.

The shift has become more evident since tensions in the Middle East intensified about two weeks ago. During that period, bitcoin has climbed roughly 13%, outperforming both risk assets and traditional defensive plays. Over the same timeframe, IGV has gained about 3%, while gold has fallen nearly 6% and U.S. stocks have also posted declines.

So far in March, bitcoin is up around 7%. If the gains hold, it would mark the cryptocurrency’s first positive month since September. The rebound follows a difficult stretch in which bitcoin recorded five consecutive monthly losses and at one stage dropped nearly 50% from its October all-time high.

Recent buying activity appears to be coming largely from U.S. investors. Institutional demand from the region has begun to reappear, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracting roughly $1.3 billion in net inflows so far in March. That puts the products on track for their first month of positive flows since October.

Despite the improving performance, investor sentiment remains cautious.

The crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to sit in “extreme fear,” showing that many traders remain wary of the market’s outlook. At the same time, funding rates in perpetual futures markets remain negative. Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between traders to keep perpetual futures prices aligned with spot markets. When rates are negative, short sellers pay long positions, indicating that bearish bets still dominate and traders are willing to pay to maintain short exposure.

That dynamic suggests bitcoin’s recovery has not yet fully shifted market sentiment.

Still, the recent divergence from other assets hints at a possible change in how bitcoin behaves during major macro events. Rather than trading purely as a high-risk asset tied closely to technology stocks, bitcoin may increasingly function as a real-time indicator for global markets.

Because the cryptocurrency trades around the clock, it often reacts first when geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur. The outbreak of the Middle East conflict highlighted this dynamic, with bitcoin moving immediately while traditional markets adjusted only once trading reopened. In recent sessions, those markets appear to be catching up to earlier moves, while bitcoin has largely stabilized.