U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs brought in another $155 million in net inflows on Wednesday, extending a two-week stretch of institutional buying even as on-chain metrics suggest that underlying demand remains somewhat fragile.
Bitcoin continued to trade with support on Thursday, hovering around $72,500 according to market data from CoinDesk. The steady stream of capital into spot exchange-traded funds has helped buoy the cryptocurrency after several weeks of relatively muted price action.
The latest inflows lifted total allocations into U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs to roughly $1.47 billion over the past two weeks, based on figures compiled by SoSoValue. The rebound marks a notable shift from earlier in the year, when these funds experienced multiple weeks of withdrawals.
Institutional interest appears to be stabilizing after a slow start to the year. Since Feb. 24, investors have directed about $1.7 billion into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence previously reported by CoinDesk. The inflows suggest that some investors believe the market may have found a short-term bottom.
However, analysts at Bitfinex have warned that ETF inflows do not always translate into immediate buying activity in the spot market. Authorized participants are able to create and even short ETF shares before acquiring the underlying bitcoin, meaning the effect of these flows on price may not be instantaneous.
Even so, bitcoin’s ability to remain resilient while ETF inflows continue during periods of geopolitical uncertainty is reinforcing its emerging role in global macro markets, according to some industry observers.
“Bitcoin is increasingly being repriced by the market as a geopolitical hedge rather than just a risk asset,” said Livio Weng, CEO of Bitfire. “Unlike gold, bitcoin trades around the clock and can move across borders instantly, which makes it an attractive outlet for capital during times of geopolitical tension.”
On-chain indicators suggest caution
Despite the rebound in ETF flows, blockchain data points to weaker underlying momentum. In a recent report, analytics firm Glassnode noted that buy-side momentum has dropped significantly, with the 30-day moving average of realized profits declining roughly 63% since early February.
The share of bitcoin supply currently held in profit has also slipped to about 57%, a level that has historically appeared during the early phases of deeper bear market environments.
Glassnode also highlighted that the cost basis of short-term holders sits near $70,000, which could act as an important psychological and behavioral ceiling. As prices approach that level, traders may choose to exit positions near breakeven, potentially turning price rallies into periods of distribution.
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