Analyst: Bitcoin could be nearing a bottom based on its performance versus gold

Bitcoin’s downturn could last into late 2026 when measured in U.S. dollars, but its performance relative to gold indicates a possible bottom may be closer than many expect, according to research from Mercado Bitcoin.

Rony Szuster, head of research at the Brazilian exchange, noted that previous bitcoin bear markets have generally run for 12 to 13 months. In dollar terms, bitcoin reached its latest peak around $126,000 in October 2025. If history repeats, the current correction could stretch toward the end of 2026, he said in a report shared with CoinDesk.

Yet the picture shifts when bitcoin is priced against gold. The BTC-gold ratio topped out in January 2025. Using the same historical cycle length, that would suggest a potential bottom forming around February 2026, with a rebound possibly beginning as early as March.

The divergence highlights broader macroeconomic pressures. Since President Donald Trump began his new term, markets have contended with renewed trade tariffs, political friction within the U.S., and escalating tensions with China and Iran, the latter developing into active military conflict.

This surge in global uncertainty — captured by the World Uncertainty Index — has fueled a powerful rally in gold. The metal has climbed more than 80% over the past year to approximately $5,280, drawing capital seeking safety. As investors rotated into bullion, bitcoin weakened against gold faster than it did versus the dollar.

At the same time, exchange-traded fund flows have weighed on sentiment. Roughly $7.8 billion has exited spot bitcoin ETFs since November, representing about 12% of the $61.6 billion held in the products, signaling risk aversion among more reactive market participants.

However, the sell-off is not uniform across all investor classes. While short-term capital has pulled back, larger holders appear to be accumulating. The report cites mid-February additions to spot bitcoin ETF positions by Abu Dhabi-based firms including Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments.

Against this backdrop, Szuster advises a disciplined approach, recommending dollar-cost averaging to navigate volatility and reduce the risks of mistiming the market.

“Historically, periods of fear have offered better long-term opportunities than periods of euphoria,” he wrote. “That doesn’t guarantee the bottom is already in place, but statistically, we’re operating in the range where attractive average entry points are typically established.”

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