Bitcoin Trading Momentum Signals Price Discovery Migration to Chicago

Bitcoin’s center of gravity is increasingly shifting toward traditional finance, with CME Group emerging as a dominant venue for institutional crypto risk.

The exchange’s decision to roll out 24/7 bitcoin derivatives trading later this year could accelerate that transition. By offering continuous access, CME would eliminate one of the final advantages long held by crypto-native exchanges — round-the-clock market availability.

Karl Naim, Chief Commercial Officer at XBTO, said the move lowers friction for hedge funds and macro managers accustomed to trading regulated instruments.

“You’ll likely see more traditional managers enter the space because they can trade products they already understand, without upgrading infrastructure or shifting trading signals,” Naim said. “There’s little incentive to take counterparty risk on unfamiliar platforms.”

CME already leads regulated bitcoin futures markets by open interest, and its contracts are widely used to hedge exposure linked to U.S. spot ETFs. Historically, however, the exchange closed over weekends, creating so-called “CME gaps” while offshore crypto exchanges continued trading. That mismatch limited institutions’ ability to manage risk continuously.

With 24/7 trading, institutions can hedge at any time, narrowing arbitrage gaps between regulated futures and offshore perpetual swaps. As those inefficiencies compress, the rationale for maintaining capital on crypto exchanges purely for access weakens.

For large allocators focused on compliance and established clearinghouses, CME increasingly appears less like an alternative and more like the default infrastructure for bitcoin exposure.

Even leaders within the crypto exchange sector have acknowledged the growing role of regulated derivatives markets. Earlier this year, Hong Fang, president of OKX, suggested that digital asset derivatives volumes could eventually rival or surpass spot trading, reinforcing U.S.-regulated markets as anchors for global bitcoin price discovery.

Institutional Capital Shapes Price Action

According to Naim, the shift underscores how bitcoin’s investor base has evolved. Once driven largely by retail traders embracing decentralization and anti-establishment ideals, the market is now increasingly influenced by sovereign funds and institutional allocators.

“Institutions tend to stick with what they know,” he said, noting that many entered through spot ETFs before expanding into derivatives.

As institutional positioning grows, bitcoin’s price behavior increasingly mirrors broader macro trends. In periods of geopolitical stress or global risk aversion, bitcoin is likely to move alongside equities rather than independently.

In that context, bitcoin functions less as a standalone crypto experiment and more as a macro-sensitive asset class.

The transformation carries a degree of irony. While bitcoin was founded on decentralization principles, the infrastructure supporting its largest flows is becoming more centralized within regulated venues — reflecting the priorities of institutional capital, which seeks market exposure without assuming platform risk