Bitcoin’s current pullback is unfolding in line with past market cycles, and further downside may still be ahead, according to Michael Terpin, chief executive of Transform Ventures.
Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, Terpin said recent optimism around an early market bottom overlooks bitcoin’s historically consistent four-year rhythm tied to its halving events.
He pushed back on predictions that bitcoin had already found a floor at $80,000 and would endure only a short-lived correction. Expectations of a swift rebound from $60,000 levels also appear premature, he argued.
Although Terpin does not foresee an extended, multi-year downturn, he cautioned that the market remains vulnerable and could experience “one more point of pain.” In his assessment, bitcoin may need to revisit the $50,000 range — or potentially the $40,000s — before forming a durable bottom.
The halving process sits at the core of his thesis. Approximately every four years, bitcoin reduces the reward miners receive for validating transactions, cutting the rate of new coin issuance. This programmed supply reduction enhances scarcity and gradually lowers bitcoin’s inflation rate, reinforcing its long-term cap of 21 million coins.
Historically, these supply shocks have preceded major bull runs as tightening supply meets rising demand. However, they have also been followed by speculative excess and subsequent corrections.
“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin said, emphasizing that the timing of both peaks and drawdowns has been remarkably consistent across prior cycles.
He noted that in past cycles, the bull market has typically peaked in the fourth quarter following a halving, with the speculative surge lasting between nine and 11 months. In this instance, he said, the rally extended for roughly 11 months before reversing.
Looking back to the previous cycle, Terpin highlighted a striking alignment in dates: bitcoin reached its high on Nov. 10, 2021, and the market bottomed shortly after the collapse of FTX on Nov. 10, 2022 — almost exactly one year later.
For Terpin, the parallels suggest the current correction is less an anomaly and more a continuation of bitcoin’s established cyclical pattern.
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