According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, bitcoin has the potential to climb to $6.5 million over the next two decades

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Sees Sideways Bitcoin, Growing Institutional Interest, and a $6.5 Million Long-Term Target

After a turbulent 2025, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects bitcoin to trade sideways in the first half of 2026, with institutional interest rising and central banks beginning to explore the asset.

Sideways Trading Expected
Hougan predicts bitcoin will remain between roughly $75,000 and $100,000 for the early part of the year. “There’s still a lot of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” he said, pointing to options-market positioning. He expects a potential breakout later in 2026 as regulatory clarity improves and macroeconomic risks are digested.

Precious Metals and Bitcoin’s Appeal
The surge in gold reflects concerns over fiat currencies and asset seizure risk, Hougan noted, while silver appears more like a late-stage momentum trade, similar to a speculative altcoin rally. Over time, these trends could funnel demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement.

Central Banks Taking Notice
Bitwise has engaged with central banks in multiple regions, but institutions are still focused on bitcoin’s fundamental security and risk profile rather than technical adoption. Hougan expects central banks to eventually hold bitcoin—potentially more than gold—but the timeline is likely 10 to 20 years.

Long-Term Outlook: $6.5 Million Bitcoin
Hougan reiterated his view that bitcoin could reach $6.5 million over the next two decades, assuming continued global debt growth, money printing, and currency debasement. “As long as the future isn’t dramatically different from the last 15 years,” he said, “we get there. It’s just a matter of time.”

Institutional Adoption and Volatility
Declining bitcoin volatility is key for institutional adoption. Hougan noted that bitcoin is now less volatile than stocks like Nvidia. He expects volatility to continue falling while bitcoin remains the fastest-growing major financial asset.

Looking Ahead
Regulatory clarity could accelerate the next bull cycle, but is not necessary for crypto’s long-term trajectory. ETFs, stablecoins, and tokenization are expected to keep expanding. “The fundamentals are really good,” Hougan said. “The stars are aligned for a strong 2026.”

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