More than half of BTC holders are underwater after prices slipped below $88,000

Most of bitcoin’s invested supply currently sits above today’s prices, leaving the market vulnerable if key support levels fail.

On-chain data from Checkonchain shows that 63% of all bitcoin BTC $82,703.53 wealth has a cost basis above $88,000. In other words, the majority of invested capital entered the market at higher prices than bitcoin is trading at today. Invested wealth measures the total value of capital deployed when coins last moved on-chain, while cost basis reflects the average acquisition price of those coins.

This comes from the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which tracks the price levels at which the existing supply last moved. Each bar represents the amount of bitcoin whose most recent transaction occurred within a specific price range, highlighting where capital is concentrated and currently underwater.

Bitcoin has traded between $80,000 and $90,000 since November, with tens of billions of dollars sitting between $85,000 and $90,000. A break below $85,000 could trigger intensified selling as investors attempt to cut losses, and long-term holders are already selling at the fastest pace in six months.

Supply between $70,000 and $80,000 is thin, meaning a drop below $80,000 — last tested in November — could accelerate a move toward $70,000.

Bitcoin is on track to finish January largely unchanged, missing the relief rally often seen after three consecutive months of declines. Historically, February has been strong, averaging gains of around 13%, but whether history repeats may depend on how the market absorbs the current overhang of underwater supply.