Asset manager VanEck has released a long-term framework suggesting bitcoin could be valued at roughly $2.9 million by 2050. The research, published Thursday in a blog post titled “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,” was authored by Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, and Patrick Bush, senior investment analyst for digital assets.
The analysis presents a base-case valuation model projecting an annualized return of about 15% over the next 25 years. Rather than serving as a price target, the framework is designed as a valuation exercise, exploring how bitcoin’s value could evolve if adoption expands beyond its current role as a trading asset. The model relies on adoption scenarios rather than traditional equity valuation metrics.
Key assumptions include bitcoin’s use as a settlement asset in global trade, potentially handling 5% to 10% of international transaction volume, and gradual allocation of a small portion of central bank reserves to bitcoin over the long term. These assumptions represent a significant departure from current conditions, as bitcoin today plays a negligible role in trade settlement and is not held as a reserve asset by major central banks. VanEck emphasizes that achieving this scenario would require regulatory clarity, robust infrastructure, and political acceptance.
The firm also highlights the volatility inherent in such adoption, modeling annualized volatility between 40% and 70%, similar to frontier markets. Even under its bear-case scenario, VanEck projects positive long-term returns, citing bitcoin’s growing structural relevance.
Macroeconomic trends are central to the framework. VanEck notes that bitcoin historically aligns more closely with global liquidity trends than with equities or commodities, and its correlation with the U.S. dollar has weakened, suggesting its drivers may be increasingly global.
From a portfolio perspective, VanEck recommends modest allocations—typically 1% to 3%—which have historically improved risk-adjusted returns. The firm stresses that this does not imply bitcoin is low-risk, but indicates that its volatility can be managed at the portfolio level when positions are appropriately sized.
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