Despite being labeled “deeply undervalued,” bitcoin continues to trade in a bear market absent any clear upside trigger.

Bitcoin’s next meaningful breakout is unlikely to materialize until selling pressure from long-term holders runs its course and sustained institutional participation takes hold, according to market analysts.

Following sharp swings in October and November 2025, bitcoin BTC $90,647.21 has settled into a period of consolidation, trading mostly between $85,000 and $90,000 for several weeks. Several strategists expect that range to define near-term price action.

“There are potential tailwinds that could support higher prices,” said Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, citing possible changes in U.S. monetary policy and legislative progress on crypto in Washington. “But at the moment, bitcoin is still stuck in a range.”

Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at Schwab’s Center for Financial Research, said the slowdown reflects a natural pause after a historic run. While Schwab does not publish price targets, Ferraioli said he remains constructive on bitcoin into 2026, even if near-term trading proves uneventful. “This may be a quieter year for crypto overall,” he said.

From the November 2022 bottom to the intraday high near $126,000 reached last October, bitcoin delivered roughly eight times returns in about three years, Ferraioli noted. “The market is still absorbing that move.”

In the months following the peak, blockchain activity has faded, while exchange-traded fund flows have become the primary driver of price action. “Fees were compressed, long-term holders were distributing, and exchange balances fell to cycle lows,” Ferraioli said. “ETF flows were doing most of the work.”

That dynamic has expanded access to bitcoin but may also be blurring traditional market signals. Ferraioli said large institutional investors remain largely absent. “Clear regulatory frameworks could unlock the next phase of more durable demand,” he added.

Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, said bitcoin has lost narrative momentum as capital has rotated toward other asset classes, particularly as early-year ETF inflows have cooled. Without renewed institutional demand or a supportive macro backdrop, Jung expects prices to move sideways.

Will Reeves, CEO of fintech firm Fold, said bitcoin is waiting for a shift in supply-demand dynamics. “It’s deeply undervalued,” he said. “The market needs sellers to be exhausted and a broader pool of buyers to step in.”

Whether the current environment amounts to a new crypto winter remains contested. “By classical definitions, bitcoin is in a bear market,” Ferraioli said. “But given its volatility, a 30% pullback is not unusual.”

While bitcoin often trades in sympathy with equities, Ferraioli emphasized that its long-term drivers are distinct. “Money supply, declining issuance, and adoption matter most,” he said. “And adoption is the key uncertainty this year.”