Boxing Day options rush: $27 billion in bitcoin, ether contracts set to expire

Crypto markets are preparing for a major options reset as tens of billions of dollars in bitcoin and ether contracts approach expiry on Deribit.

The “Boxing Day” event, named after the Dec. 26 holiday, will see approximately $23.6 billion in bitcoin options and $3.8 billion in ether options expire. Each contract represents one BTC or one ETH, and the settlement accounts for more than half of Deribit’s total open interest.

Positioning around the expiry remains skewed to the upside. Deribit data show a put-call ratio of 0.38, signaling a strong preference for call options and a broadly bullish bias among traders.

“The max pain level is around $96,000, and the low put-call ratio highlights positioning tilted toward calls,” said Sidrah Fariq, Deribit’s global head of retail sales and business development, in comments shared via Telegram. The max pain price marks the level at which options buyers suffer the greatest collective losses, while sellers — typically institutional desks and market makers — capture the most profit.

Options give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a set price at expiry. Calls express bullish expectations, while puts are used to hedge downside risk or profit from declines.

Max pain in focus

As expiry nears, the max pain level has become a key reference point. Some market participants believe hedging activity by professional traders can pull spot prices toward that level, implying potential moves toward $96,000 for bitcoin and $3,100 for ether by settlement.

Still, the theory remains contested, with many in the derivatives market arguing it has limited influence on actual price action.

Bullish bets face holiday conditions

The skew in positioning means there are just 38 put options for every 100 calls outstanding, underscoring how aggressively traders have chased upside exposure throughout the year. Open interest is concentrated in call strikes between $100,000 and $116,000, while the $85,000 put remains the most popular downside hedge.

Large expiries often introduce volatility as traders close positions or roll them into later maturities. Fariq noted that some puts in the $70,000 to $85,000 range are being rolled forward into January.

“Whether December puts are allowed to expire or extended will help clarify if downside risk is purely year-end positioning or part of a broader structural reset,” she said.

Despite the scale of the expiry, volatility expectations remain muted. “The settlement falls on Boxing Day, liquidity is thinner due to the holidays, and while upside exposure dominates, macro uncertainty is limiting conviction,” Fariq added.

Deribit’s bitcoin DVOL index — a measure of 30-day implied volatility — is hovering near 45%, down sharply from 63% in late November when bitcoin briefly dropped toward $80,000. The decline suggests easing market stress and reduced expectations of sharp price swings tied to the expiry.000000