Glassnode’s newest weekly update underscores growing similarities between today’s bitcoin market and the early chapters of the 2022 crypto winter, pointing to a rise in supply held at a loss, waning spot demand and increasingly defensive positioning in derivatives markets.
A key area of concern is the rising probability of capitulation among top buyers. According to Glassnode’s supply quantiles cost-basis model, bitcoin’s spot price has stayed below the 0.75 quantile since mid-November, hovering near $96,100. This places over 25% of BTC’s circulating supply underwater—an inversion that also preceded the onset of the 2022 bear market.
Loss-making supply has expanded sharply as well. On a seven-day moving average, total BTC supply in loss has climbed to 7.1 million coins, revisiting the upper end of the 5–7 million range observed during early 2022 stress conditions.
Even so, capital inflows remain mildly positive on a realized basis. Glassnode reports that bitcoin’s realized cap net position change sits around $8.69 billion per month, though this is still dramatically lower than the peak inflow rate of roughly $64.3 billion seen over the summer.
Off-chain data paints an increasingly cautious picture. ETF demand continues to retreat, with BlackRock’s IBIT logging its sixth straight week of redemptions—its longest outflow streak since launching in January 2024. Total outflows now exceed $2.7 billion over the past five weeks.
Spot market indicators are weakening as well. Glassnode highlights a rollover in cumulative volume delta, with Binance CVD remaining firmly negative. Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium—after briefly turning positive—appears set to slip back into discount territory.
Derivatives metrics reinforce the downshift in risk appetite. Open interest has fallen through November and into December, reflecting reduced enthusiasm for leveraged exposure following the Oct. 10 liquidation-driven flash crash. Funding rates remain mostly neutral with intermittent negative prints, and a cooling funding premium points to a less speculative market backdrop.
Options flow data shows little appetite for betting on a sustained upside breakout ahead of next week’s FOMC decision. Earlier in the week, traders favored puts as bitcoin drifted toward $80,000. As prices steadied, call activity picked up, suggesting a modest easing in near-term anxiety—but not enough to signal broad bullish conviction.
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