Bitcoin Pricing Suggests Most Pessimistic Global Growth Scenario Since Covid and FTX, According to Bitwise

Bitcoin is currently behaving as if a recession is looming, even though macroeconomic indicators suggest otherwise.

André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, highlighted in a Friday X post that the cryptocurrency is pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since the 2022 Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Using survey data from Sentix, ISM, and the Philly Fed, Dragosch charted the divergence between bitcoin’s implied growth expectations and traditional macro signals.

The chart reveals a striking disconnect: bitcoin’s implied growth outlook has fallen below -1 standard deviation, signaling extreme pessimism, while survey-based macro indicators remain near neutral. Dragosch compared this divergence to prior dislocations in March 2020 and November 2022, both of which preceded significant bitcoin rallies.

“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” he noted, describing the current risk-reward setup as asymmetric. “You’re not even remotely bullish enough,” he added, suggesting a recovery could mirror the sixfold rally following the March 2020 COVID shock.

Crypto sentiment remains muted. The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index held at 20 (“Fear”) on Saturday, slightly above its year-to-date low of 10 recorded on Nov. 22. By comparison, it was 39 a month ago and reached 84 (“Extreme Greed”) in late November 2024.

Bitcoin traded at $90,559 as of 11:30 a.m. UTC on Nov. 29, down 0.8% over 24 hours. Year-to-date, it is down 3% and 28% from its all-time high of $126,080 on Oct. 6.

Meanwhile, macro expectations show signs of easing. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates traders now assign an 86.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%–3.75% range at its December meeting.