Bitcoin Correction “Likely Done,” Year-End Upside Still on the Table: StanChart

Standard Chartered Analyst: Bitcoin Sell-Off Likely Nearing End, Year-End Rally on the Table

Bitcoin’s recent steep decline may be reaching its conclusion, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick says the pullback follows a familiar pattern and appears close to exhaustion.

Bitcoin BTC$84,537.42 dropped below $90,000 on Tuesday, extending a roughly 30% decline from its early October all-time high above $126,000. This leg marks the deepest pullback since the U.S. introduced spot bitcoin ETFs last year, fueling debate over whether the cryptocurrency is entering a typical four-year cycle bear phase.

Kendrick described the sell-off as “a fast, painful version of the third decline over the past few years, nearly identical in magnitude.” He noted that sentiment and valuation metrics have reset to levels historically linked with market bottoms. MicroStrategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV), comparing its bitcoin holdings to its share price, has dropped to parity at 1.0, while other indicators have collapsed to near-zero levels, signaling seller exhaustion and capitulation.

“A rally into year-end is my base case,” Kendrick added. His view aligns with Bitfinex analysts, who observed slowing realized losses among short-term holders and emerging on-chain capitulation signals, both typical markers of market bottoms.

Bitcoin bounced to just under $93,000 on Tuesday, up 3.8% from its overnight lows.