BTC Held by Short-Term Investors in Loss Reaches Peaks Last Seen During the FTX Collapse

Despite bitcoin’s sharp correction, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show unusual resilience, creating a widening gap between market price action and investor behavior.

Assets under management across U.S. bitcoin ETFs have declined only about 4%, even as bitcoin itself has fallen roughly 25% from its October all-time high. The discrepancy underscores how ETF holders have stayed relatively steady through the downturn.

Short-term holders (STHs) have not been as fortunate. According to Glassnode, STHs—defined as investors holding coins for less than 155 days—are now almost entirely underwater. Bitcoin traded near $104,000 on June 15, meaning nearly every coin purchased since then now sits above current spot prices.

Glassnode data further shows that 2.8 million BTC held by STHs are currently at a loss, the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when bitcoin fell toward $15,000.

The pullback itself remains consistent with historical norms. Bitcoin’s 25% drawdown sits squarely within the typical 20%–30% correction range seen during prior bull markets. But unlike STHs, long-term holders (LTHs) appear to be distributing supply. LTH-held coins have declined from 14.76 million BTC in July to 14.30 million BTC as of Nov. 16—marking a reduction of 452,532 BTC.

“Many long-standing holders have chosen to sell in 2025 after years of accumulating,” said Bitcoin OG and Fragrant Board Director Nicholas Gregory. “These sales are mostly lifestyle-driven, not bearish sentiment. The launch of U.S. ETFs and bitcoin surpassing $100,000 created an attractive and liquid window for profit-taking.”

The divergence between price and ETF positioning remains notable. When measured in bitcoin rather than dollars, U.S. spot ETF assets remain close to their highs, sitting at 1.33 million BTC versus the 1.38 million BTC peak on Oct. 10—a relatively small 3.6% pullback, according to Checkonchain.

By evaluating AUM in BTC terms, the data avoids the distortions introduced by falling prices. The numbers suggest that the current market weakness is being driven less by ETF redemptions and more by long-term holders choosing to take profits.

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