Markets Divided on Whether the Fed Will Cut Rates in December

Market expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut have cooled significantly, with odds slipping to roughly 52% and signaling growing investor uncertainty.

Data from CME’s FedWatch tool shows that traders now view the December policy decision as essentially a coin flip. Confidence in a 25 basis point cut has fallen sharply from 95% a month ago and 65% just a week earlier. If enacted, the cut would lower the benchmark rate to a range of 3.5%–3.75%.

The declining probability of near-term easing is acting as a headwind for crypto markets. Bitcoin hovered near $103,000 as of Thursday, showing minimal movement on the day, according to CoinDesk data.

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